Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:45	FOX Sports
Austria	20:45	Laola1
Brazil	15:45	N Sports
Croatia	20:45	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 3
Ecuador	13:45	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	20:45	Laola1
Italy	20:45	Como TV
Portugal	19:45	Canal 11
Russia	21:45	TV Start Triumph
Slovenia	20:45	SportKlub 6
Switzerland	20:45	LAOLA1
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 6


	Belenenses		Arouca

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.48
	4.75	3.80	1.57
	6.3	4.15	1.42
	5.9	4.84	1.51
	4.98	4.42	1.52
	4.7	4.75	1.49
	5.73	4.06	1.54	Watch
	6.2	4.3	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.51 ↓ (7.55)	4.28 ↓ (4.61)	1.5 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Belenenses
16.8%

Draw
21.6%

Arouca
61.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

12.1%

19.8%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.1%

19.1%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arouca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Belenenses - Arouca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Diego (G) 14. Afonso A. 23. Bruninho 66. Cesinha 33. Chamito 8. Herrera J. 17. Horta Leitao D. 15. Lucas J. 58. Monteiro D. 21. Morgado T. 4. Nuno Tomas (C)	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 17. Barbero I. 7. Djouahra N. 3. Fontan J. 8. Fukui T. 10. Gozalbez P. 18. Lebedenko O. 15. Sanchez J. 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 19. Trezza A. 6. van Ee E.
Substitutes
22. Bandarra M. 81. Ferreira D. 20. Moninhas T. 99. Oliveira G. (G) 11. Oliveira J. 39. Pinto A. 9. Souza E. 19. Valente A. 85. Varela D.	37. Climent M. 71. Duarte M. (G) 21. Flores M. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 4. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 89. Pedro Santos 20. Rukavina G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽,
27', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Afonso A. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Cesinha ⚽,
62', Barbero I. ↓, Mayulu F. ↑,
62', Gozalbez P. ↓, Rukavina G. ↑,
62', Fukui T. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
73', Chamito 🟨,
73', Pedro Santos 🟨,
76', 2 - 1, Bruninho ⚽,
81', Djouahra N. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
85', Chamito ↓, Souza E. ↑,
85', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Moninhas T. ↑,
85', Herrera J. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Mansilla B. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 3, Mansilla B. ⚽,
90+2', Morgado T. ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 3, Monteiro D. ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
105', 3 - 4, Mayulu F. ⚽,
118', 🟨,

Preview

Belenenses arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Arouca have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Belenenses has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Arouca is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.26	Mafra - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.09.26	Beira-Mar - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.26	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Vitória de Sernache - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.26	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWWW
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
11.10.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Estoril Praia - Arouca	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Arouca - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WTLTW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
31.10.26	Oliveirense - Belenenses	✺
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
06.11.26	Famalicão - Arouca	✺
01.11.26	Arouca - Nacional	✺

Belenenses - Arouca