Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 35

Date: 1 May 2023, Monday

Location: Stadio Ciro Vigorito (Benevento)

Referee: Feliciani E. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Benevento		Parma

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.45
	3.15	3.15	2.3
	2.99	3.26	2.59
	2.88	3.25	2.48	Watch
	2.95	3.2	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.73)	3.2 ↑ (3)	2.46 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benevento
32%

Draw
29.6%

Parma
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

30.9%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

31.1%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	4.8%	81%

Benevento - Parma Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Benevento will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Parma will win (votes: 17 - 81%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Parma: 64.2% – 97.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Benevento has the most likely position - 20 (72.3%), project points - 35, currently - 31, a very good chance of relegated (96%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Parma has the most likely position - 5 (37.89%), project points - 58, currently - 51, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of prom. playoffs (99%), a chance of promoted (19%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 31, importance 34, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Benevento is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Parma is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Parma will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benevento won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Benevento won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
22.04.23	Palermo - Benevento	1:1 ✺
15.04.23	Benevento - Reggina	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Benevento - SPAL	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	Bari - Benevento	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Pisa - Benevento	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTLLL
- FC Parma
Italian Serie B
22.04.23	Parma - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
14.04.23	Modena - Parma	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Cittadella - Parma	0:1 ✺
01.04.23	Parma - Palermo	2:1 ✺
18.03.23	Como - Parma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.12.22	Parma - Benevento	0:1
05.02.22	Benevento - Parma	0:0
29.08.21	Parma - Benevento	1:0
Italian Serie A
03.04.21	Benevento - Parma	2:2
06.12.20	Parma - Benevento	0:0

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