Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 24 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Italy	Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Benfica		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.2
	2.2	3.3	3.25
	2.3	3.4	3.25	Watch
	2.35	3.42	3.34
	2.29	3.42	3.34
	2.2	3.4	3.2
	2.24	3.4	3.3
	2.28	3.4	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.08)	3.39 ↓ (3.48)	3.27 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
42.4%

Draw
28.2%

Real Sociedad
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

27.3%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

28.5%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benfica, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.6%	17.6%	14.7%

Benfica - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 68 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 46 - 67.6%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 10 - 14.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 56.5% – 78.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 13. Jurasek D. 87. Neves J. 8. Aursnes F. 7. David Neres 27. Rafa Silva 20. Joao Mario 33. Musa P.	1. Remiro A. (G) 18. Traore H. 5. Zubeldia I. 24. Le Normand R. 3. Munoz A. 23. Mendez B. 4. Zubimendi M. 8. Merino M. 14. Kubo T. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C) 7. Barrenetxea A.
Substitutes
44. Araujo T. 14. Bernat J. 9. Cabral A. 22. Chiquinho 61. Florentino 47. Gouveia T. 17. Guedes G. 38. Joao Victor 10. Kokcu O. 5. Morato 24. Soares S. (G) 19. Tengstedt C.	30. Ayesa G. (G) 11. Cho M. 6. Elustondo A. 9. Fernandez C. 26. Gonzalez U. 28. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 32. Marrero U. (G) 16. Olasagasti J. A. 20. Pacheco J. 19. Sadiq U. 22. Turrientes B. 12. Zakharyan A.
Coaches
Schmidt R.	Alguacil I.

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Real Sociedad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Benfica have a series of guest games.

Benfica will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Merquelanz M. (Knee Injury) Tierney K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Bah A. (Injury) Di Maria A. (Muscle Injury) Kokcu O. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Real Sociedad: Andre Silva (Calf Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
20.10.23	SC Lusitânia - Benfica	1:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.10.23	Estoril Praia - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
03.10.23	Inter Milan - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
29.09.23	Benfica - Porto	1:0 ✺
24.09.23	Portimonense - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
21.10.23	Real Sociedad - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
08.10.23	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
03.10.23	Red Bull Salzburg - Real Sociedad	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.09.23	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:0 ✺
27.09.23	Valencia - Real Sociedad	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWWW

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