Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Leeds United		Fulham

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	3
	2.42	3.35	3
	2.34	3.48	3.15	Watch
	2.3	3.2	3
	2.4	3.48	3.06	Watch
	2.36	3.25	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.25)	3.36 ↑ (3.33)	3.06 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
40.4%

Draw
28.4%

Fulham
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.6%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

29.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Fulham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.1%	33.3%	28.6%

Leeds United - Fulham Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 15 - 36.6%). Fulham will win (votes: 12 - 29.3%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 34.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 21.9% – 51.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fulham (1.71) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Leeds (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fulham will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Fulham (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Darlow K. (G) 24. Justin J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 11. Aaronson B. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 44. Gruev I. 3. Gudmundsson G. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	1. Leno B. (G) 21. Castagne T. 5. Andersen J. (C) 15. Cuenca J. 33. Robinson A. 20. Lukic S. 16. Berge S. 8. Wilson H. 32. Smith Rowe E. 30. Sessegnon R. 7. Jimenez R.
Substitutes
23. Bornauw S. 40. Buonanotte F. 25. Byram S. 29. Gnonto W. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.	35. Amissah S. 10. Cairney T. 31. Diop I. 22. Kevin 24. King J. 18. Kusi Asare J. 23. Lecomte B. (G) 6. Reed H. 11. Traore A.
Coaches
Farke D.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Castagne T. 🟨,
28', Lukic S. 🟨,
28', Silva M. 🟨,
41', Ampadu E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Wilson H. 🟨,
65', Sessegnon R. ↓, Kevin ↑,
66', Lukic S. ↓, Cairney T. ↑,
70', Okafor N. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
77', Smith Rowe E. ↓, King J. ↑,
81', Gruev I. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
81', Bogle J. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
87', Cuenca J. 🟨,
88', Jimenez R. ↓, Kusi Asare J. ↑,
88', Wilson H. ↓, Diop I. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Nmecha L. ⚽, Ampadu E. (A),
90+4', Aaronson B. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,
90+5', Kusi Asare J. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1.

Recent performances by Leeds have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fulham is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Leeds has had a series of away games.

Leeds will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Leeds: James D. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Fulham: Chukwueze S. (International duty) Iwobi A. (International duty) Rodrigo Muniz (Hamstring Injury) Tete K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bogle J. (Calf Injury) Bornauw S. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Fulham: King J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58% Fulham: 0.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5:8	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Sunderland - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLTTT
- Fulham FC
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Fulham - Middlesbrough	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Fulham - Liverpool	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Crystal Palace - Fulham	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	West Ham United - Fulham	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
13.09.25	Fulham - Leeds United	1:0
22.04.23	Fulham - Leeds United	2:1
English FA Cup
28.02.23	Fulham - Leeds United	2:0
English Premier League
23.10.22	Leeds United - Fulham	2:3
English League Cup
21.09.21	Fulham - Leeds United	0:1 penalties
English Premier League
19.03.21	Fulham - Leeds United	1:2
19.09.20	Leeds United - Fulham	4:3

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