Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool)

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Sport 24


	Everton		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	3
	2.4	3.2	3
	2.58	3.05	3.05
	2.57	3.15	3.21
	2.5	3.17	3.16	Watch
	2.45	3	2.9
	2.57	3.19	3.19	Watch
	2.4	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.52)	3.13 ↓ (3.32)	3.08 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Everton
38.3%

Draw
30.6%

Leeds United
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

28.9%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

30.3%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Everton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Everton than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.5%	41.5%	17%

Everton - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Everton will win (votes: 22 - 41.5%). Leeds will win (votes: 9 - 17%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 41.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Everton: 28.2% – 54.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 7 - 35%). Leeds (votes: 2 - 10%). Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 12 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DNB - Everton (1.71) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 6 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.25 - Everton (2.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Leeds (1.53) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Leeds (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pickford J. (G) 2. Patterson N. 6. Tarkowski J. (C) 15. O'Brien J. 16. Mykolenko V. 27. Gueye I. 37. Garner J. 10. Ndiaye I. 45. Armstrong H. 7. McNeil D. 11. Barry T.	26. Darlow K. (G) 23. Bornauw S. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 44. Gruev I. 24. Justin J. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
24. Alcaraz C. 39. Aznou A. 9. Beto 32. Branthwaite J. 23. Coleman S. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 20. Dibling T. 34. Rohl M. 12. Travers M. (G)	40. Buonanotte F. 25. Byram S. 29. Gnonto W. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 14. Nmecha L. 19. Okafor N. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Moyes D.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Justin J. ⚽, Stach A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', McNeil D. ↓, Dewsbury-Hall K. ↑,
46', Armstrong H. ↓, Branthwaite J. ↑,
54', Stach A. 🟨,
56', Gruev I. 🟨,
66', Gruev I. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
71', Patterson N. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Barry T. ⚽, Gueye I. (A),
85', Stach A. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
85', Aaronson B. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
85', Bornauw S. ↓, Buonanotte F. ↑,
89', Barry T. ↓, Beto ↑,
90', Buonanotte F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Everton: Grealish J. (Foot Injury) Iroegbunam T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Keane M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Leeds: Bijol J. (Hamstring Injury) James D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Everton: Alcaraz C. (Injury) Branthwaite J. (Hamstring Injury) Dewsbury-Hall K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Gudmundsson G. (Muscle Injury) Stach A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Everton won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Everton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58% Everton: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6:3	3	9

Last Results with these Odds

Everton - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 38.1%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Everton
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Everton - Sunderland	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Everton - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Everton - Brentford	2:4 ✺
30.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Everton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WLTLW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
17.01.26	Leeds United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.08.25	Leeds United - Everton	1:0
18.02.23	Everton - Leeds United	1:0
30.08.22	Leeds United - Everton	1:1
12.02.22	Everton - Leeds United	3:0
21.08.21	Leeds United - Everton	2:2
03.02.21	Leeds United - Everton	1:2
28.11.20	Everton - Leeds United	0:1

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