What is the expert prediction for Leeds United vs Arsenal?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Leeds United vs Arsenal. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Leeds United vs Arsenal Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, January 31, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 24

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport
Africa	DStv Now, One Africa, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Blitz, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Benin	Benin TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Botswana	YTV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Eswatini	Eswatini TV
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 5
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Madagascar	MATV
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mauritius	MBC 11
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 5
Nigeria	NTA Sports, SuperSport Blitz, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Republic-of-the-congo	Tele Congo
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SABC 3, SABC Plus, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Tanzania	UTV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Arsenal TV, BBC Radio 5 Live
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Sport 24
Zambia	ZNBC 3


	Leeds United		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	6	4.2	1.53
	6.3	4.3	1.55
	6.15	4.15	1.61
	6.12	4.29	1.58	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.57
	6.56	4.37	1.58	Watch
	6	4	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.09 ↑ (6.06)	4.17 ↓ (4.33)	1.57 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
15.8%

Draw
23%

Arsenal
61.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

22.2%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.4%

21.6%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Leeds United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	19%	70.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 6 - 10.3%). Arsenal will win (votes: 41 - 70.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 59% – 82.4%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 22 high ROI users predict this event. Leeds (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Arsenal (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Arsenal (1.92) (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +2 - Arsenal (3.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Leeds (5.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Leeds (2.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 35 high ROI users predict this event. Leeds (votes: 8 - 22.9%). Arsenal (votes: 23 - 65.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Darlow K. (G) 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Gudmundsson G. 2. Bogle J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 44. Gruev I. 24. Justin J. 18. Stach A. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.	1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 5. Hincapie P. 29. Havertz K. 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 20. Madueke N. 14. Gyökeres V. 19. Trossard L.
Substitutes
23. Bornauw S. 40. Buonanotte F. 25. Byram S. 29. Gnonto W. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 19. Okafor N. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 33. Calafiori R. 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 11. Martinelli G. 3. Mosquera C. 16. Norgaard C. (C) 8. Odegaard M. 4. White B.
Coaches
Farke D.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Zubimendi M. ⚽, Madueke N. (A),
37', Gudmundsson G. 🟨,
38', 0 - 2, Darlow K. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Justin J. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
46', Gruev I. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
59', Timber J. 🟨,
61', Havertz K. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
61', Madueke N. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
69', 0 - 3, Gyökeres V. ⚽, Martinelli G. (A),
71', Aaronson B. ↓, Buonanotte F. ↑,
75', Gyökeres V. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
76', Hincapie P. ↓, Calafiori R. ↑,
81', Stach A. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
81', Trossard L. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
85', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
86', 0 - 4, Gabriel Jesus ⚽, Odegaard M. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 0.

In recent matches, Leeds has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Leeds may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arsenal is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Leeds: Bijol J. (Hamstring Injury) Nmecha L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Gudmundsson G. (Muscle Injury) James D. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 5:23. (average 0.6:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

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Outrights of English Premier League for now

Arsenal: 87.14%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Arsenal	31	21	7	3	61:22	39	70
15	Leeds	31	7	12	12	37:48	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 61.97%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
26.01.26	Everton - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Leeds United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWWLT
- Arsenal FC
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Arsenal - Kairat	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
25.01.26	Arsenal - Manchester United	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Inter Milan - Arsenal	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
17.01.26	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
14.01.26	Chelsea - Arsenal	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
23.08.25	Arsenal - Leeds United	5:0
01.04.23	Arsenal - Leeds United	4:1
16.10.22	Leeds United - Arsenal	0:1
08.05.22	Arsenal - Leeds United	2:1
18.12.21	Leeds United - Arsenal	1:4
English League Cup
26.10.21	Arsenal - Leeds United	2:0
English Premier League
14.02.21	Arsenal - Leeds United	4:2

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