Match Info

Serie A - Round 29

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Abisso R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
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Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport 3
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Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
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Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
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Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Napoli		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.2	7	Watch
	1.44	4.25	8.3
	1.46	4.5	9
	1.43	4.49	9.25	Watch
	1.4	4	8
	1.49	4.32	7.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.37)	4.29 ↓ (4.63)	8.21 ↓ (9.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
66.1%

Draw
22.3%

Lecce
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

20.6%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9%

19.6%

9.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Napoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.8%	13.5%	2.7%

Napoli - Lecce Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

EH -1 - Napoli (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Napoli (2.30) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (30 of 36 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.15% – 95.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Lecce (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 31. Beukema S. 4. Buongiorno A. 17. Olivera M. 21. Politano M. (C) 99. Anguissa F. 6. Gilmour B. 37. Spinazzola L. 20. Elmas E. 27. Alisson Santos 19. Hojlund R.	30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 19. Banda L. 9. Stulic N.
Substitutes
14. Contini N. (G) 11. De Bruyne K. 23. Giovane 3. Gutierrez M. 5. Juan Jesus 9. Lukaku R. 30. Mazzocchi P. 8. McTominay S. 32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G)	99. Cheddira W. 8. Fofana S. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 23. Sottil R.
Coaches
Conte A.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Siebert J. ⚽, Gallo A. (A),
19', Siebert J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Elmas E. ↓, McTominay S. ↑,
46', Anguissa F. ↓, De Bruyne K. ↑,
46', Coulibaly L. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, Politano M. (A),
59', Stulic N. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Politano M. ⚽,
73', Politano M. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
73', Spinazzola L. ↓, Mazzocchi P. ↑,
79', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
79', Gallo A. ↓, Ndaba C. ↑,
85', Alisson Santos ↓, Giovane ↑,
86', Ngom O. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lecce may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Napoli is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: David Neres (Ankle Injury) Di Lorenzo G. (Knee Injury) Rrahmani A. (Injury) Vergara A. (Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Camarda F. (Injury) Gaspar K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Lobotka S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Berisha M. (Injury) Gallo A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 1.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Napoli: 3.78% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
06.03.26	Napoli - Torino	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Verona - Napoli	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Atalanta - Napoli	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Napoli - Roma	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
10.02.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLTL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Como - Lecce	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Lecce - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Cagliari - Lecce	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Lecce - Udinese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
28.10.25	Lecce - Napoli	0:1
03.05.25	Lecce - Napoli	0:1
26.10.24	Napoli - Lecce	1:0
26.05.24	Napoli - Lecce	0:0
30.09.23	Lecce - Napoli	0:4
07.04.23	Lecce - Napoli	1:2
31.08.22	Napoli - Lecce	1:1

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