Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 39

Date: 25 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: University of Bolton Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Linington J. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Accrington Stanley

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5.75
	1.58	3.9	5.5
	1.53	4.25	6.25
	1.58	4.17	6.09
	1.55	3.9	5.8
	1.55	4.15	5.85	Watch
	1.57	4	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.53)	4.05 ↑ (3.98)	5.81 ↓ (5.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
60.4%

Draw
23.3%

Accrington Stanley
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.4%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

22.8%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Bolton Wanderers - Accrington Stanley Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Bolton has the most likely position - 5 (89.34%), project points - 81, currently - 75, not chance of relegated, a very good chance of prom. playoffs (99%), a chance of promoted (22%), not chance of win league.

Accrington has the most likely position - 23 (84.4%), project points - 40, currently - 38, a very good chance of relegated (98%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 13, small importance 22, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 3.

Bolton is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Accrington is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Bolton is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Bolton to win the game is with odds 1.45.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Bolton won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
22.04.23	Bolton Wanderers - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
18.04.23	Burton Albion - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
15.04.23	Oxford United - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
10.04.23	Bolton Wanderers - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Exeter City - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTWTW
- Accrington Stanley
English League One
22.04.23	Portsmouth - Accrington Stanley	1:0 ✺
18.04.23	Accrington Stanley - Peterborough United	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Accrington Stanley - Fleetwood Town	2:5 ✺
10.04.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Accrington Stanley	3:0 ✺
07.04.23	Accrington Stanley - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
22.02.23	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	0:2
English League One
22.10.22	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	2:3
18.04.22	Bolton Wanderers - Accrington Stanley	3:1
11.12.21	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	1:0
29.02.20	Bolton Wanderers - Accrington Stanley	0:0
English EFL Trophy
10.12.19	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
English League One
23.11.19	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	7:1

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