Match Info

League One - Round 40

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.75	4.33
	1.78	3.35	4.7
	1.84	3.48	5.04
	1.84	3.48	4.29	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.4
	1.75	3.75	4.33	Watch
	1.92	3.4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.89)	3.5 ↑ (3.25)	4.46 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
52.2%

Draw
26.8%

Stevenage Borough
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

28.2%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

27.8%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	17.4%	26.1%

Bolton Wanderers - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 13 - 61.9%). Stevenage will win (votes: 4 - 19%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 41.1% – 82.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bolton (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Stevenage (4.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 3 - 75%). Stevenage (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonham J. (G) 14. Osei-Tutu J. 18. Toal E. (C) 3. Forino-Joseph C. 6. Johnston G. 27. Rodrigues R. 8. Sheehan J. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 9. Kenny J. 11. Gale T. 10. Dalby S.	1. Marschall F. (G) 6. Sweeney D. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 15. Goode C. 17. Pattenden J. 23. Thompson L. 18. White H. 11. Roberts J. 8. Phillips D. 19. Reid J. 10. Kemp D.
Substitutes
15. Apter R. 13. Broome N. (G) 48. Burstow M. 29. Christie C. 20. Cissoko I. 25. Conway M. 22. Dempsey K.	13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 3. Butler D. 14. Earley S. 4. Houghton J. 30. Lubala B. 44. Patterson P. 25. Phillips M.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Cozier-Duberry A. ⚽, Osei-Tutu J. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Kenny J. ⚽, Gale T. (A),
39', Sweeney D. ↓, Earley S. ↑,
42', Phillips D. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', 3 - 0, Cozier-Duberry A. ⚽, Dalby S. (A),
56', Dalby S. ↓, Burstow M. ↑,
56', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, Apter R. ↑,
59', Reid J. ↓, Phillips M. ↑,
60', White H. ↓, Houghton J. ↑,
60', Roberts J. ↓, Lubala B. ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Kemp D. ⚽, Houghton J. (A),
67', 4 - 1, Rodrigues R. ⚽, Burstow M. (A),
68', Kenny J. ↓, Dempsey K. ↑,
68', Rodrigues R. ↓, Conway M. ↑,
74', Kemp D. ↓, Patterson P. ↑,
80', Gale T. ↓, Cissoko I. ↑,
81', 5 - 1, Burstow M. ⚽,
90+2', Earley S. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 2.

Recent performances by Bolton have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Stevenage is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Bolton is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Bolton: Blackett-Taylor C. (Thigh Injury) Erhahon E. (Inactive) Forss M. (Hamstring Injury) Simons X. (Inactive)

There will not play in Stevenage: Cornick H. (Ankle Injury) Simpson T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Stevenage: James-Wildin L. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Outrights of English League One for now

Stevenage: 1.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stevenage	8	3	3	2	12:8	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 48.54%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
11.04.26	Cardiff City - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Bolton Wanderers - Stockport County	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Plymouth Argyle - Bolton Wanderers	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Bolton Wanderers - Doncaster Rovers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTWLT
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
11.04.26	Bradford City - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Stevenage Borough - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Rotherham United - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Stevenage Borough - Reading	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Plymouth Argyle - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
20.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	0:0
03.05.25	Bolton Wanderers - Stevenage Borough	1:1
29.10.24	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	1:4
29.03.24	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	0:0
03.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Stevenage Borough	3:2
English League Two
13.02.21	Bolton Wanderers - Stevenage Borough	1:0
21.11.20	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	1:2

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