Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		Köln

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	7	Watch
	1.41	4.95	7.4	Watch
	1.45	5.2	6.69
	1.40	4.72	7.19	Watch
	1.47	5.2	6.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.55)	5.06 ↑ (4.58)	7.05 ↑ (5.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
67.4%

Draw
19%

Köln
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

20.8%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

20.1%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Borussia Dortmund's performance.

Köln has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Köln than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.1%	9.5%	2.4%

Borussia Dortmund - Köln Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Borussia D (2.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Köln (5.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Köln (2.87) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (37 of 42 users predict this - 88.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.31% – 97.89%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Köln (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 13. Gross P. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 4. Hubers T. 6. Martel E. 39. Ozkacar C. 28. Sebulonsen S. 18. Johannesson I. 8. Huseinbasic D. 32. Lund K. 16. Kaminski J. 13. El Mala S. 30. Bulter M.
Substitutes
28. Anselmino A. 14. Beier M. 7. Bellingham J. 10. Brandt J. 2. Couto Y. 33. Meyer A. (G) 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Silva F. 25. Sule N.	9. Ache R. 17. Castro-Montes A. 3. Heintz D. 11. Kainz F. 5. Krauss T. 37. Maina L. 2. Schmied J. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Kovac N.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Johannesson I. 🟨,
45', Sebulonsen S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bulter M. ↓, Krauss T. ↑,
56', Ozkacar C. ↓, Heintz D. ↑,
63', Guirassy S. 🟨,
68', Gross P. ↓, Sabitzer M. ↑,
68', Chukwuemeka C. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
72', Johannesson I. ↓, Schmied J. ↑,
72', Huseinbasic D. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
72', El Mala S. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
79', Adeyemi K. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
85', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
85', Svensson D. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
90+1', Beier M. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 0, Beier M. ⚽, Silva F. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Köln has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Köln may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Köln: Kilian L. (Knee Injury) Thielmann J. (Muscle Injury) van den Berg R. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Köln: Maina L. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 46:22. (average 2.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:6. (average 2.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Copenhagen - Borussia Dortmund	2:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLTWW
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Köln - Augsburg	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Hoffenheim - Köln	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Köln - Stuttgart	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.01.24	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	0:4
19.08.23	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	1:0
18.03.23	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	6:1
01.10.22	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	3:2
20.03.22	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
30.10.21	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	2:0
20.03.21	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	2:2

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