Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	10:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	23:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	15:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	10:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	16:30	Nova Sport
Canada	09:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	10:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	08:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	15:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision
Israel	16:30	Sport 3
Italy	15:30	Sky Sport 258
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	19:30	Setanta Sports
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport+
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 2
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	21:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Voyo
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Taiwan	21:30	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Borussia Dortmund		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.75	4.2	Watch
	1.68	4.4	4.2
	1.68	4.7	4.25
	1.71	4.59	4.38
	1.94	3.48	3.85	Watch
				Watch
	1.71	4.79	4.49	Watch
	1.68	4.65	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.73)	4.48 ↑ (4.45)	4.23 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
55.8%

Draw
21.5%

RB Leipzig
22.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.9%

21.4%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

21%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	25%	10%

Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 26 - 65%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 4 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 50.2% – 79.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Borussia D (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 6 - 50%). Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 5. Bensebaini R. 2. Couto Y. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 20. Ouedraogo A. 14. Baumgartner C. 13. Seiwald N. 9. Bakayoko J. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
7. Bellingham J. 10. Brandt J. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 26. Ryerson J. 21. Silva F. 25. Sule N.	6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 49. Diomande Y. 27. Gomis T. 8. Haidara A. 11. Harder C. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Kovac N.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Ouedraogo A. (A),
21', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Couto Y. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Baku R. 🟨,
60', Couto Y. ↓, Ryerson J. ↑,
67', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
68', Nusa A. ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
70', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
70', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
80', Beier M. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
80', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
86', Banzuzi E. 🟨,
89', Bakayoko J. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
90+3', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 1.

Borussia D is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

RB Leipzig is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Finkgrafe M. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Illness) Nedeljkovic K. (Knee Injury) Schlager X. (Calf Injury) Werner T. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 33:35. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 2.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWTW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.03.25	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
02.11.24	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:1
27.04.24	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	4:1
09.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:3
German DFB Pokal
05.04.23	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
German Bundesliga
03.03.23	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:1
10.09.22	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	3:0

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