Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Sky Sport 258
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport+
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Borussia Dortmund		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.75	4.2	Watch
	1.68	4.4	4.2
	1.68	4.7	4.25
	1.71	4.59	4.38
	1.94	3.48	3.85	Watch
				Watch
	1.71	4.79	4.49	Watch
	1.68	4.65	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.73)	4.48 ↑ (4.45)	4.23 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
55.8%

Draw
21.5%

RB Leipzig
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

21.4%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

21%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	25%	10%

Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 26 - 65%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 4 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 50.2% – 79.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Borussia D (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 6 - 50%). Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 5. Bensebaini R. 2. Couto Y. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 20. Ouedraogo A. 14. Baumgartner C. 13. Seiwald N. 9. Bakayoko J. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
7. Bellingham J. 10. Brandt J. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 26. Ryerson J. 21. Silva F. 25. Sule N.	6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 49. Diomande Y. 27. Gomis T. 8. Haidara A. 11. Harder C. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Kovac N.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Ouedraogo A. (A),
21', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Couto Y. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Baku R. 🟨,
60', Couto Y. ↓, Ryerson J. ↑,
67', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
68', Nusa A. ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
70', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
70', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
80', Beier M. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
80', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
86', Banzuzi E. 🟨,
89', Bakayoko J. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
90+3', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 1.

Borussia D is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

RB Leipzig is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Finkgrafe M. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Illness) Nedeljkovic K. (Knee Injury) Schlager X. (Calf Injury) Werner T. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 33:35. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 2.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Juventus - Borussia Dortmund	4:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWTW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.03.25	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
02.11.24	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:1
27.04.24	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	4:1
09.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:3
German DFB Pokal
05.04.23	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
German Bundesliga
03.03.23	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:1
10.09.22	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	3:0

Upcoming Matches