Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
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World	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.33	1.7	Watch
	4.4	4	1.73
	4.45	4.15	1.7	Watch
	4.73	4.3	1.73
	4.71	4.26	1.71	Watch
	4.2	4	1.67
	4.31	4.44	1.74	Watch
	4.75	4	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (4.2)	4.19 ↑ (4.09)	1.71 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
21.4%

Draw
22.8%

Borussia Dortmund
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

23.3%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

22.8%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.5%	10.5%	86%

Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (49 of 57 users predict this - 85.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.94% – 94.98%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 18 - 90%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 2. Fischer K. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 6. Belocian J. 24. Eriksen C. 27. Arnold M. 11. Daghim A. 7. Shiogai K. 40. Paredes K. 9. Amoura M.	1. Kobel G. (G) 25. Sule N. 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 26. Ryerson J. 7. Bellingham J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
18. Adjetey J. 41. Burger J. 31. Gerhardt Y. 37. Hensel P. 19. Lindstrom J. 10. Majer L. 29. Muller M. (G) 17. Pejcinovic D. 32. Svanberg M.	41. Albert M. 5. Bensebaini R. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 40. Inacio S. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 49. Reggiani L. 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Bauer D.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Fischer K. ↓, Burger J. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Brandt J. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Daghim A. 🟨,
51', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
52', 1 - 1, Koulierakis K. ⚽, Eriksen C. (A),
64', Paredes K. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
65', Shiogai K. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
69', Ryerson J. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
83', Amoura M. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
83', Daghim A. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Guirassy S. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
88', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
88', Nmecha F. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
88', Sule N. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,
90+4', Beier M. ↓, Reggiani L. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 1.

Wolfsburg has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Borussia D has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Borussia D is the team to beat.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Jenz M. (Yellow Cards) Maehle J. (Shoulder Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Illness) Wind J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Illness) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Sabitzer M. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Wolfsburg: Kumbedi S. (Injury) Vini Souza (Injury) Wimmer P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 8:48. (average 0.4:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.7:2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Dortmund - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 54.07%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
30.01.26	Köln - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Wolfsburg - Heidenheim	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLTWL
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
01.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Borussia Dortmund	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.09.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0
03.05.25	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	4:0
22.12.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ET
German Bundesliga
17.02.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
23.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0
07.05.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	6:0

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