Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 May 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Albania	21:00	RTSH
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport
Belgium	21:00	RTL
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	22:00	BTV Action
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Italy	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Malaysia	03:00	Astro
Netherlands	21:00	RTL 7
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport, RTS Serbia
Sweden	21:00	TV4
Turkey	22:00	TV8 Turkey
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports


	Borussia Dortmund		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.6	2.3
	2.8	3.7	2.35
	2.95	3.8	2.32	Watch
	3.02	3.75	2.36
	2.97	3.74	2.36
	2.9	3.6	2.3
	3.06	3.72	2.38
	2.78	3.65	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.74)	3.7 ↓ (3.73)	2.35 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Network on TV: TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
32.9%

Draw
26%

Paris Saint-Germain
41%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.8%

25.6%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

26.4%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.9%	11.9%	72.2%

Borussia Dortmund - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 122 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 19 - 15.6%). PSG will win (votes: 88 - 72.1%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 12.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 64.1% – 80.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 22. Maatsen I. 23. Can E. (C) 20. Sabitzer M. 27. Adeyemi K. 19. Brandt J. 10. Sancho J. 14. Fullkrug N.	99. Donnarumma G. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 21. Hernandez L. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 10. Dembele O. 7. Mbappe K. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 9. Haller S. 35. Lotka M. (G) 21. Malen D. 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 8. Nmecha F. 6. Ozcan S. 11. Reus M. 25. Sule N. 38. Watjen K. 17. Wolf M.	11. Asensio M. 35. Beraldo L. 23. Kolo Muani R. 19. Lee Kang-In 26. Mukiele N. 1. Navas K. (G) 15. Pereira D. 9. Ramos G. 37. Skriniar M. 28. Soler C. 80. Tenas A. (G) 4. Ugarte M.
Coaches
Terzic E.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Maatsen I. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Fullkrug N. ⚽, Schlotterbeck N. (A),
42', Hernandez L. ↓, Beraldo L. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Ruiz F. 🟨,
65', Barcola B. ↓, Kolo Muani R. ↑,
73', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
83', Adeyemi K. ↓, Reus M. ↑,
87', Ryerson J. ↓, Wolf M. ↑,
87', Brandt J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
90+1', Fullkrug N. ↓, Moukoko Y. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Borussia D is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

PSG is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Borussia D could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Knee Injury) Duranville J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Kimpembe P. (Convalescence) Kurzawa L. (Coach's decision) Rico S. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Haller S. (Ankle Injury) Hummels M. (Shin Injury) Malen D. (Thigh Injury) Sabitzer M. (Illness)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Borussia D won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
27.04.24	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	4:1 ✺
21.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Atlético Madrid	4:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.04.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWWL
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
27.04.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Le Havre	3:3 ✺
24.04.24	Lorient - Paris Saint-Germain	1:4 ✺
21.04.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Lyon	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.04.24	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:4 ✺
10.04.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Barcelona	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
13.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1
19.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
11.03.20	Paris Saint-Germain - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
18.02.20	Borussia Dortmund - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1

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