Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - Final

Date: 1 June 2024, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Wembley Stadium (London) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	beIN Sports MENA
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	ServusTV, Sky Sport
Azerbaijan	23:00	CBC Sport
Belgium	21:00	RTL TVI
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	22:00	BTV Action, Max Sport 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision Sports, Cytavision Sports
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	C+ France, TF 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 1, MEGA
Hungary	21:00	M4 Sport
Ireland	20:00	RTE 2
Italy	21:00	Canale 5, Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Netherlands	21:00	RTL 7, Ziggo Kanaal 14, Ziggo Sport Select
North Macedonia	21:00	MRT 1
Norway	21:00	TV2
Poland	21:00	Polsat, Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	20:00	Eleven Sports 1, TVi
Romania	22:00	Orange Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Tennis
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones, TVE
Sweden	21:00	TV4
Turkey	22:00	TV8 Turkey
International	19:00	MEGOGO Futbol+


	Borussia Dortmund		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	4	1.73
	4.5	3.9	1.73
	4.65	4.1	1.72
	4.7	4.09	1.75
	4.7	4.1	1.75
	4.8	3.9	1.7
	4.92	4.03	1.77
	4.35	4.15	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.67 ↓ (5.19)	4.03 ↓ (4.24)	1.74 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Network on TV: CBS, TUDN, Univision

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
20.6%

Draw
23.9%

Real Madrid
55.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.5%

22.6%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

21.7%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.5%	13.3%	65.2%

Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 177 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 38 - 21.5%). Real will win (votes: 116 - 65.5%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 58.5% – 72.5%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 22. Maatsen I. 23. Can E. (C) 20. Sabitzer M. 10. Sancho J. 19. Brandt J. 27. Adeyemi K. 14. Fullkrug N.	1. Courtois T. (G) 2. Carvajal D. 22. Rudiger A. 6. Fernandez N. (C) 23. Mendy F. 15. Valverde F. 12. Camavinga E. 8. Kroos T. 5. Bellingham J. 11. Rodrygo 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 9. Haller S. 35. Lotka M. (G) 21. Malen D. 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 8. Nmecha F. 6. Ozcan S. 11. Reus M. 25. Sule N. 38. Watjen K. 17. Wolf M.	4. Alaba D. 25. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 20. Garcia F. 24. Guler A. 14. Joselu 17. Lucas 13. Lunin A. (G) 3. Militao E. 10. Modric L. 18. Tchouameni A.
Coaches
Terzic E.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
40', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
43', Sabitzer M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
72', Adeyemi K. ↓, Reus M. ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Carvajal D. ⚽, Kroos T. (A),
79', Hummels M. 🟨,
80', Can E. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
80', Brandt J. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
83', 0 - 2, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
85', Bellingham J. ↓, Joselu ↑,
85', Kroos T. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
87', Sancho J. ↓, Bynoe-Gittens J. ↑,
90+1', Rodrygo ↓, Militao E. ↑,
90+4', Vinicius Junior ↓, Lucas ↑,

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 1.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Borussia D could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Real is a favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Knee Injury) Duranville J. (Muscle Injury) Morey Bauza M. (Illness)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Tchouameni A. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Lunin A. (Illness)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Borussia D won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
18.05.24	Borussia Dortmund - Darmstadt	4:0 ✺
11.05.24	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.05.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.05.24	Borussia Dortmund - Augsburg	5:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.05.24	Borussia Dortmund - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WLWWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
25.05.24	Real Madrid - Betis	0:0 ✺
19.05.24	Villarreal - Real Madrid	4:4 ✺
14.05.24	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	5:0 ✺
11.05.24	Granada - Real Madrid	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.05.24	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
06.12.17	Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	3:2
26.09.17	Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid	1:3
07.12.16	Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:2
27.09.16	Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid	2:2
08.04.14	Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid	2:0
02.04.14	Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	3:0
30.04.13	Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:0

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