Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	SportyNet
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	ESPN 5
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	ZEE5
Israel	Sport 4
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	FOX One
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
World	OneFootball TV


	Borussia Dortmund		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	8	Watch
	1.36	5.50	7.25
	1.36	4.8	8.3
	1.38	5.9	8
	1.38	5.7	7.5	Watch
	1.34	5.5	7.65
	1.37	5.94	8.4	Watch
	1.35	5.8	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 (1.36)	5.58 ↑ (5.5)	7.79 ↑ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
70.5%

Draw
17.2%

Werder Bremen
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

17.2%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.5%

16.3%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+3%)

The ML Model estimate for Werder Bremen aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.7%	4.3%	0%

Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Borussia D (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.31% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Werder has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Borussia D could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Borussia D holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Our forecast points to a victory for Borussia D in today's match, at odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Borussia D has recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 41:27 (averaging 2.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Borussia D against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 24:18 goals (averaging 2.4:1.8 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.23% Werder Bremen: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Dortmund - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 69.76%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
01.09.26	HEBC Hamburg - Borussia Dortmund	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW
- Werder Bremen
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Twente - Werder Bremen	7:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Werder Bremen - Augsburg	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
16.05.26	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
13.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	3:0
25.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:2
31.08.24	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	0:0
09.03.24	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2
20.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	1:0
11.02.23	Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund	0:2

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