Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Jose Americo de Almeida Filho (Joao Pessoa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Botafogo PB		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.85	3.5
	2	2.88	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.11	4.1
	1.06	10.49	25.00	Watch
	2.15	2.7	3.6
	2.02	3.02	4.13	Watch
	2.4	2.88	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.45)	3.99 ↑ (3)	6.72 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo PB
56.1%

Draw
27.6%

Ponte Preta
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

30.5%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo PB has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Botafogo PB's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponte Preta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (-17.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botafogo PB that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Botafogo PB - Ponte Preta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Michael (G) 15. Cassio Gabriel 99. Denilson 22. Erick 18. Evandro 19. Gabriel Honorio 8. Igor Maduro 25. Luis Miguel 34. Marcelo Augusto 20. Thallyson 4. Wendel Lomar (C)	12. Diogo Silva (G) 15. Artur 21. Dudu 10. Elvis 18. Emerson Santos 9. Jeh 17. Jonas Toro 25. Lucas Candido 27. Luiz Felipe 28. Pacheco 34. Wanderson
Substitutes
10. Camilo 26. Ed Carlos 6. Felippe Borges 5. Gama 21. Guilherme Silveira 30. Gui Sales 23. Joao Diogo 28. Lucas Balardin 14. Robles Fuentes A. 88. Silvinho 12. Wallace (G) 2. Ynaia	77. Bruno Lopes 35. Diego Tavares 20. Joao Gabriel 62. Kevyn 36. Leocovick 55. Leo Oliveira 8. Miguel 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 5. Rodrigo Souza 4. Saimon 6. Sergio Raphael
Coaches
Evaristo Piza	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', Marcelo Augusto 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Denilson ⚽,
28', Luiz Felipe 🟨,
38', 2 - 0, Luis Miguel ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Luiz Felipe ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
46', Dudu ↓, Leo Oliveira ↑,
46', Marcelo Augusto ↓, Lucas Balardin ↑,
66', Wanderson ↓, Kevyn ↑,
67', Denilson ↓, Gui Sales ↑,
67', Luis Miguel ↓, Silvinho ↑,
76', Gabriel Honorio ↓, Gama ↑,
78', Pacheco ↓, Miguel ↑,
78', Jonas Toro ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
86', Cassio Gabriel ↓, Robles Fuentes A. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Bruno Lopes ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Botafogo PB might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Serie C
02.08.25	CS Alagoano - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
28.07.25	Botafogo PB - Brusque	1:3 ✺
19.07.25	Ituano - Botafogo PB	0:3 ✺
13.07.25	Botafogo PB - Londrina	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Botafogo PB - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLWWT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
02.08.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Caxias - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Ponte Preta - Floresta	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLWLW

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