Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 29

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Deretti C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Disney+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Botafogo SP		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.4	Watch
	2.35	2.98	3.15
	2.36	3.15	3.42
	2.53	2.76	3.20	Watch
	2.37	3.04	3.22
	2.25	3.05	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.25)	3 ↓ (3.05)	3.27 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
39.9%

Draw
31.4%

Ferroviária
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

30.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

29.3%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Botafogo SP - Ferroviária Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Jeferson 3. Ericson 4. Vilar 6. Jean Victor 5. Jhony Douglas 8. Matheus Barbosa 7. Robinho 10. Marquinho 11. Jefferson Nem 9. Leo Gamalho (C)	41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 13. Gustavo Medina 31. Ze Mario 5. Ricardinho 35. Netinho 8. Alencar 10. Fabricio Daniel 77. Juninho 92. Carlao
Substitutes
14. Alisson Cassiano 22. Dramisino A. 17. Gabriel Barros 23. Gabriel Bispo 19. Guilherme Queiroz 12. Joao Carlos (G) 18. Jonathan Cafu 20. Maciel L. 21. Matheus Regis 16. Risso G. 13. Wallison 15. Wesley Dias	20. Albano 66. Edson Lucas 95. Filipe Costa (G) 27. Hernani 7. Kevin 44. Maycon 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 37. Thiago Lopes 11. Vitor Barreto 4. Vitor Mendes 17. Ze Hugo
Coaches
Aal A.	Claudinei Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Ricardinho 🟨,
36', Ericson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
54', 0 - 1, Juninho ⚽, Fabricio Daniel (A),
60', 0 - 2, Carlao (Pen),
61', Jhony Douglas ↓, Maciel L. ↑,
61', Robinho ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
62', Ricardinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
69', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Albano ↑,
70', Alencar ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Guilherme Queiroz ⚽,
80', Juninho ↓, Maycon ↑,
80', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
85', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
86', Matheus Barbosa ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Botafogo SP is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Edson (Red Card)

There will not play in Ferroviária: Albano (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Alisson Cassiano (Inactive) Gustavo Bochecha (Inactive) Leo Gamalho (Injury)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Thayllon (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo SP won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
24.09.25	CRB Maceio - Botafogo SP	3:2 ✺
18.09.25	Botafogo SP - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Botafogo SP - Athletico Paranaense	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Goiás - Botafogo SP	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LTLLW
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.25	Ferroviária - Goiás	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Avaí - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
15.09.25	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
05.09.25	Coritiba - Ferroviária	4:0 ✺
01.09.25	Ferroviária - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
29.05.25	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.23	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:2
01.02.22	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	1:1
08.03.21	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	5:0
01.03.20	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:0
28.01.19	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	1:2
29.01.18	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:2

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