Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 38

Date: 25 November 2023, Saturday


	Botafogo SP		Londrina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.51	3.9	5.75
	1.53	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.54	4.09	6.6
	1.53	4.09	6.47
	1.5	3.8	6.5
	1.53	3.96	6.4	Watch
	1.51	3.95	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.81)	3.93 ↑ (3.3)	6.35 ↑ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
61.5%

Draw
23.8%

Londrina
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

28.1%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

27.7%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Botafogo SP's performance.

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Londrina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botafogo SP that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Londrina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
98%	0%	2%

Botafogo SP - Londrina Predictions

Users Predictions: Botafogo SP will win (49 of 50 users predict this - 98%).
Confidence interval (95%): 94.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Albino (G) 2. Leite J. 3. Lucas Dias 4. Luis Felipe 5. Carlos Manuel 6. Patrick Brey 7. Lucas Cardoso 8. Tortello 9. Edson Carius 10. Guilherme Madruga (C) 11. Jonas Toro	1. Neneca (G) 3. Luan Freitas 4. Guilherme Lacerda 5. Rodrigo Alves 6. Gustavo Salomao 7. William Barbio (C) 8. Victor Hugo 10. Iago Dias 11. Jonas 15. Franca I. 9. Brandao
Substitutes
17. Gabriel W. 14. Joao Maranini 12. Klippel B. (G) 15. Marcos Junior 13. Ozorio R. 16. Pedro Rodrigues 18. Severino P.	18. Bravo Fernandez M. 13. Garraty 16. Lauan 17. Pablo Ruan 14. Pedro Cacho 19. Peu 12. Saulo (G)
Coaches
Marcelo Chamusca	Teixeira da Fonseca R.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Londrina is Relegated to Serie C (First stage )

Recent matches Botafogo SP is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Londrina is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Londrina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Botafogo SP is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Botafogo SP won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo SP won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
18.11.23	Criciúma - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
11.11.23	Chapecoense - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Botafogo SP - Ceará	2:2 ✺
27.10.23	Guarani - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
21.10.23	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LLTWW
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
17.11.23	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
10.11.23	Vila Nova - Londrina	4:1 ✺
03.11.23	Londrina - Guarani	0:0 ✺
29.10.23	Londrina - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
21.10.23	Juventude - Londrina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
24.07.23	Londrina - Botafogo SP	1:2
16.11.19	Londrina - Botafogo SP	1:1
20.08.19	Botafogo SP - Londrina	2:1

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