Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Brentford Community Stadium (London)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brentford		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.75	2.05
	3.3	3.8	2.1
	3.5	3.82	2.13
	3.6	3.85	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.93)	3.81 ↓ (3.83)	2.08 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brentford
28.2%

Draw
25.4%

Manchester United
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

24.9%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

24.9%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brentford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.2%	7.9%	61.9%

Brentford - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Brentford will win (votes: 19 - 30.6%). Man Utd will win (votes: 38 - 61.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 8.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 49.2% – 73.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Brentford (votes: 9 - 23.7%). Man Utd (votes: 27 - 71.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Brentford (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brentford (1.75) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Man Utd (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Brentford (votes: 11 - 26.2%). Man Utd (votes: 29 - 69%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kelleher C. (G) 33. Kayode M. 22. Collins N. (C) 4. van den Berg S. 2. Hickey A. 6. Henderson J. 18. Yarmolyuk Y. 19. Ouattara Da. 24. Damsgaard M. 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.	1. Bayindir A. (G) 4. de Ligt M. 5. Maguire H. 23. Shaw L. 2. Dalot D. 25. Ugarte M. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 13. Dorgu P. 19. Mbeumo B. 10. Cunha M. 30. Sesko B.
Substitutes
20. Ajer K. 3. Henry R. 27. Janelt V. 8. Jensen M. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 17. Milambo A. 15. Onyeka F. 5. Pinnock E. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G)	33. Fredricson T. 22. Heaton T. (G) 26. Heaven A. 31. Lammens S. (G) 35. Leon D. 37. Mainoo K. 7. Mount M. 15. Yoro L. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Andrews K.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Thiago I. ⚽, Henderson J. (A),
20', 2 - 0, Thiago I. ⚽,
26', 2 - 1, Sesko B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Fernandes B. 🟨,
66', Ugarte M. ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
66', Maguire H. ↓, Yoro L. ↑,
72', Collins N. 🟨,
75', Hickey A. ↓, Henry R. ↑,
75', Ouattara Da. ↓, Lewis-Potter K. ↑,
76', Fernandes B. (Pen),
80', Schade K. 🟨,
81', Henderson J. ↓, Onyeka F. ↑,
81', Damsgaard M. ↓, Janelt V. ↑,
81', Shaw L. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
84', Dorgu P. 🟨,
85', Dorgu P. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
90', Thiago I. ↓, Jensen M. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 1, Jensen M. ⚽, Yarmolyuk Y. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Brentford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Man Utd might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Brentford: Gustavo Nunes (Hamstring Injury) Maghoma P. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Casemiro (Red Card) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Mazraoui N. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Brentford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 2.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brentford FC
English Premier League
20.09.25	Fulham - Brentford	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
16.09.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sunderland - Brentford	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWTLW
- Manchester United
English Premier League
20.09.25	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Manchester City - Manchester United	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.25	Grimsby Town - Manchester United	3:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Fulham - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
04.05.25	Brentford - Manchester United	4:3
19.10.24	Manchester United - Brentford	2:1
30.03.24	Brentford - Manchester United	1:1
07.10.23	Manchester United - Brentford	2:1
05.04.23	Manchester United - Brentford	1:0
13.08.22	Brentford - Manchester United	4:0
02.05.22	Manchester United - Brentford	3:0

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