Match Info

Date: 18 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video
World	beIN Sports Connect


	Brest		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	4	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.6
	2.15	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.13	3.15	3.7
	2.23	3.17	3.86
	2.15	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.1	3.32	3.68	Watch
	2.16	3.2	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.04)	3.2 ↓ (3.37)	3.74 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 6

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Current Win Probability

Brest
44.6%

Draw
29.8%

Ajaccio
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.1%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

27.9%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

The chances for Ajaccio have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.3%	22%	31.7%

Brest - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 19 - 46.3%). Ajaccio will win (votes: 13 - 31.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 22%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 31% – 61.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Brest has the most likely position - 19 (10.03%), has project points - 41, has currently - 5, has a chance of relegated (38%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ajaccio has the most likely position - 20 (24.65%), has project points - 34, has currently - 1, has a good chance of relegated (62%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 52, importance 44, match rating 48. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brest won 2.

Brest is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ajaccio has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Brest could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Brest will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Brest: Belaili Y. (Yellow Cards) Le Douaron J. (Injury)

There will not play in Ajaccio: Botue J. (Injury) Cimignani Y. (Injury) Mayembo F. (Injury) Spadanuda K. (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Brest won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 15-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Brest won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
10.09.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	1:0 ✺
04.09.22	Brest - Strasbourg	1:1 ✺
31.08.22	Rennes - Brest	3:1 ✺
28.08.22	Brest - Montpellier	0:7 ✺
21.08.22	Angers - Brest	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTLLW
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 1
11.09.22	Ajaccio - Nice	0:1 ✺
04.09.22	Ajaccio - Lorient	0:1 ✺
31.08.22	Montpellier - Ajaccio	2:0 ✺
26.08.22	Ajaccio - Lille	1:3 ✺
21.08.22	Rennes - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.04.19	Ajaccio - Brest	0:2
30.11.18	Brest - Ajaccio	2:0
12.01.18	Brest - Ajaccio	2:3
04.08.17	Ajaccio - Brest	2:1
03.03.17	Brest - Ajaccio	1:2
30.09.16	Ajaccio - Brest	1:1
25.01.16	Ajaccio - Brest	2:1

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