Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 31

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
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Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
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Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
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Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
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South-korea	Coupang Play
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Brest		Lens

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.2	1.53	Watch
	4.6	3.9	1.71
	5.85	4.15	1.55
	6.15	4.5	1.56
	5.71	4.37	1.54	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.5
	6.35	4.48	1.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.7 ↑ (4.27)	4.26 ↑ (3.96)	1.57 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
16.7%

Draw
22.4%

Lens
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

23.9%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

23.4%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brest's form might have worsened.

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.2%	17.2%	65.5%

Brest - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Lens will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lens: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Brest (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 27. Guindo D. 13. Chotard J. 24. Tousart L. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 19. Ajorque L. 7. Dina Ebimbe J.	40. Risser R. (G) 25. Ganiou I. 20. Sarr M. 27. Masuaku A. 2. Aguilar R. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. 14. Udol M. 7. Sotoca F. (C) 22. Said W. 19. Sima A.
Substitutes
17. Balde M. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 50. Jauny N. (G) 21. Kante I. Y. 39. Lassus A. 1. Majecki R. (G) 33. Makalou H. 99. Mboup P. 12. Zogbe L.	23. Abdulhamid S. 6. Baidoo S. 5. Bulatovic A. 11. Edouard O. 38. Fofana R. 16. Gorgelin M. (G) 21. Haidara A. 9. Saint-Maximin A. 10. Thauvin F.
Coaches
Roy E.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Guindo D. ⚽, Chotard J. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Tousart L. ⚽, Guindo D. (A),
42', 3 - 0, Dina Ebimbe J. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', Sotoca F. ↓, Thauvin F. ↑,
53', Masuaku A. ↓, Baidoo S. ↑,
53', Aguilar R. ↓, Abdulhamid S. ↑,
53', Said W. ↓, Saint-Maximin A. ↑,
56', Thomasson A. 🟨,
60', 3 - 1, Thauvin F. ⚽,
64', 3 - 2, Sima A. ⚽, Abdulhamid S. (A),
64', Sima A. ↓, Edouard O. ↑,
67', Dina Ebimbe J. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
75', Dina Ebimbe J. 🟨,
80', Tousart L. ↓, Diaz Jr. M. ↑,
85', Sangare M. 🟨,
89', Guindo D. ↓, Zogbe L. ↑,
89', Del Castillo R. ↓, Mboup P. ↑,
90+4', Lala K. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 3, Saint-Maximin A. ⚽, Sangare M. (A),
90+6', Coudert G. 🟨,
90+6', Saint-Maximin A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 1.

Brest has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lens has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lens is the team to beat.

There will not play in Lens: Antonio K. (Foot Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Gurtner R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Balde M. (Thigh Injury) Doumbia K. (Injury) Locko B. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brest won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 29:31. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.7:1.4).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 2.52% Brest: 0.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lens	6	2	1	3	11:10	1	7
12	Brest	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Lens - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 54%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
19.04.26	Nantes - Brest	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Brest - Rennes	3:4 ✺
21.03.26	Auxerre - Brest	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Monaco - Brest	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Brest - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLLW
- RC Lens
Coupe De France
21.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	3:2 ✺
04.04.26	Lille - Lens	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Lens - Angers	5:1 ✺
14.03.26	Lorient - Lens	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.08.25	Lens - Brest	3:1
20.04.25	Brest - Lens	1:3
25.08.24	Lens - Brest	2:0
09.03.24	Lens - Brest	1:0
13.08.23	Brest - Lens	3:2
05.02.23	Brest - Lens	1:1
Coupe De France
22.01.23	Brest - Lens	1:3

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