Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 8

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Toulouse		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	6	Watch
	1.55	4.3	5.9
	1.55	4.34	6.24
	1.52	4.16	5.97	Watch
	1.59	4.29	6.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.56)	4.26 ↑ (4.04)	6.12 ↑ (5.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
61.9%

Draw
22.5%

Metz
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

23.5%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

20.2%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toulouse that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	30.8%	7.7%

Toulouse - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 24 - 61.5%). Metz will win (votes: 3 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 46.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 6 - 60%). Metz (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Toulouse (1.87) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Metz (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 15. Donnum A. 23. Casseres C. 17. Francis A. 24. Methalie D. 9. Magri F. 20. Emersonn 10. Gboho Y.	1. Fischer J. (G) 5. Gbamin J. 38. Sane S. 39. Kouao K. 12. Toure A. 10. Hein G. (C) 8. Traore B. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 14. Sabaly C. 9. Abuashvili G. 30. Diallo H.
Substitutes
31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 3. McKenzie M. 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.	99. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 2. Colin M. 20. Deminguet J. 23. Sane I. 21. Stambouli B. 61. Sy P. (G) 7. Tsitaishvili G. 15. Yegbe T.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Magri F. ⚽, Emersonn (A),
8', 2 - 0, Donnum A. (Pen),
34', Abuashvili G. 🟨,
37', Magri F. 🟨,
45+2', Sane S. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Abuashvili G. ↓, Yegbe T. ↑,
64', Magri F. ↓, McKenzie M. ↑,
64', Sidibe D. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
71', Traore B. ↓, Deminguet J. ↑,
71', Ballo-Toure F. ↓, Tsitaishvili G. ↑,
75', Emersonn 🟨,
76', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
76', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
79', 3 - 0, Gboho Y. ⚽, Cresswell C. (A),
83', Gboho Y. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
83', Hein G. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
84', Diallo H. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
84', 4 - 0, Cresswell C. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Toulouse is the team to beat.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Ankle Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Hamstring Injury) Stambouli B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Metz: Ballo-Toure F. (Neck Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
05.10.25	Lyon - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Nantes	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Auxerre - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTLLL
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Monaco - Metz	5:2 ✺
14.09.25	Metz - Angers	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Paris FC - Metz	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
14.01.24	Metz - Toulouse	0:1
01.10.23	Toulouse - Metz	3:0
28.09.19	Metz - Toulouse	2:2
03.03.18	Metz - Toulouse	1:1
18.11.17	Toulouse - Metz	0:0
14.05.17	Metz - Toulouse	1:1
French Coupe de la Ligue
14.12.16	Metz - Toulouse	2:1 penalties

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