Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 3
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lille		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.27	6.25	9.5	Watch
	1.25	6.4	10.5
	1.33	5.55	9.5
	1.31	6.17	11.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.43)	6.09 ↑ (4.65)	10.23 ↑ (7.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lille
74.7%

Draw
15.8%

Metz
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

20.3%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

19.6%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lille's performance.

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.7%	4.9%	2.4%

Lille - Metz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Lille (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Lille (3.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -1 - draw (3.82) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Users Predictions: Lille will win (37 of 40 users predict this - 92.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.34% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 20 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 12. Meunier T. 18. Mbemba Ch. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 32. Bouaddi A. 21. Andre B. (C) 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 10. Haraldsson H. 27. Correia F. 29. Igamane H.	61. Sy P. (G) 39. Kouao K. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 21. Stambouli B. (C) 12. Toure A. 20. Deminguet J. 14. Sabaly C. 30. Diallo H. 9. Abuashvili G.
Substitutes
6. Bentaleb N. 16. Bodart A. (G) 14. Broholm M. 35. Diaoune S. 17. Mukau N. 3. Ngoy N. 28. Raghouber U. 11. Sahraoui O. 24. Verdonk C.	99. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 2. Colin M. 1. Fischer J. (G) 29. Guerti I. 10. Hein G. 25. Melieres C. 33. Munongo B. 23. Sane I.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', Mandi A. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Igamane H. ⚽, Fernandez-Pardo M. (A),
26', Le Mignan S. 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Correia F. ⚽,
36', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Bouaddi A. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
53', 3 - 0, Correia F. ⚽, Fernandez-Pardo M. (A),
61', Abuashvili G. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
61', Kouao K. ↓, Melieres C. ↑,
61', Toure A. ↓, Hein G. ↑,
62', Melieres C. 🟨,
64', 4 - 0, Perraud R. ⚽, Haraldsson H. (A),
68', Mandi A. ↓, Ngoy N. ↑,
68', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
68', Igamane H. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
77', Sy P. ↓, Fischer J. ↑,
82', 5 - 0, Andre B. ⚽, Correia F. (A),
83', Correia F. ↓, Broholm M. ↑,
89', Deminguet J. 🟨,
90', Andre B. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
90', Deminguet J. ↓, Guerti I. ↑,
90', Sabaly C. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
90+3', 6 - 0, Haraldsson H. ⚽, Diaoune S. (A),
90+5', 6 - 1, Sane I. ⚽, Diallo H. (A),
90+10', Haraldsson H. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.

In recent matches, Lille has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Metz is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Metz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lille is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Inactive) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Metz: Ballo-Toure F. (Muscle Injury) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Hamstring Injury) Sane S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Metz: Traore B. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lille won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:11. (average 1.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 0.9:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Lille - PAOK	3:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Nantes - Lille	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Roma - Lille	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
28.09.25	Lille - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWTWL
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Toulouse - Metz	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Monaco - Metz	5:2 ✺
14.09.25	Metz - Angers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
28.04.24	Metz - Lille	1:2
03.12.23	Lille - Metz	2:0
18.02.22	Lille - Metz	0:0
08.08.21	Metz - Lille	3:3
09.04.21	Metz - Lille	0:2
13.09.20	Lille - Metz	1:0
09.11.19	Lille - Metz	0:0

Upcoming Matches