Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 28

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 4, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Montpellier		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.75
	2.52	3.35	2.8	Watch
	2.53	3.36	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.7
	2.55	3.37	2.93	Watch
	2.52	3.35	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.33)	3.38 ↓ (3.51)	2.8 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 3

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
37.8%

Draw
28.2%

Le Havre
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

27.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

26.1%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.8%	7.4%	77.8%

Montpellier - Le Havre Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 4 - 15.4%). Le Havre will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Le Havre (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Montpellier (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Le Havre will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Le Havre (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (C) 77. Sacko F. 2. Meite A. 5. Sagnan M. 3. Sylla I. 12. Ferri J. 13. Chotard J. 70. Coulibaly T. 11. Savanier T. 9. Delort A. 18. Pays N.	1. Gorgelin M. (G) 7. Nego L. 93. Sangante A. (C) 4. Lloris G. 32. Pembele T. 94. Toure A. 23. Mwanga J. 10. Casimir J. 8. Kechta Y. 21. Joujou A. 99. Koka
Substitutes
16. Bertaud D. (G) 46. Cara S. 22. Fayad K. 10. Khazri W. 4. Kouyate K. 14. Maamma O. 49. Ndollo Bille W. 19. Nzingoula R. 17. Sainte-Luce T.	28. Ayew A. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 30. Desmas A. (G) 34. Diawara M. 46. Housni I. 19. Ndiaye R. 45. Soumare I. 6. Youte Kinkoue E. 18. Zouaoui Y.
Coaches
Gasset J.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Kechta Y. ⚽,
33', 0 - 2, Toure A. ⚽, Casimir J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Sacko F. ↓, Ndollo Bille W. ↑,
57', Chotard J. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
57', Coulibaly T. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
64', Kechta Y. ↓, Soumare I. ↑,
64', Casimir J. ↓, Diawara M. ↑,
65', Delort A. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
74', Joujou A. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
85', Koka ↓, Ndiaye R. ↑,
85', Sangante A. ↓, Youte Kinkoue E. ↑,
88', Sagnan M. ↓, Cara S. ↑,
90+1', Khazri W. 🟨,
90+2', Gorgelin M. 🟨,
90+6', Meite A. 🟥,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Montpellier has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Le Havre is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Montpellier: Dzodic S. (Injury) Issoufou Y. (Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Omeragic B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Le Havre: Kitala Y. (Ankle Injury) Logbo A. (Shoulder Injury) Mosengo D. N. (Knee Injury) Zouaoui Y. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Ballo-Toure F. (Inactive) Sangante A. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Le Havre to win the game is with odds 2.79.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
30.03.25	Auxerre - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Lille - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Montpellier - Rennes	0:4 ✺
23.02.25	Nice - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
16.02.25	Montpellier - Lyon	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
30.03.25	Le Havre - Nantes	3:2 ✺
16.03.25	Lyon - Le Havre	4:2 ✺
09.03.25	Le Havre - Saint-Étienne	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Lens - Le Havre	3:4 ✺
23.02.25	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
03.11.24	Le Havre - Montpellier	1:0
31.03.24	Le Havre - Montpellier	0:2
13.08.23	Montpellier - Le Havre	2:2

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