Match Info

Premier League - Round 32

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.2	1.57
	5.6	4.15	1.6
	5.7	4.4	1.62
	4.92	4.31	1.68	Watch
	5	4	1.6
	5.42	4.34	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.32 ↑ (4.43)	4.23 ↑ (4.16)	1.62 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
18%

Draw
22.6%

Brighton & Hove Albion
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

23.1%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

22.3%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
1.7%	6.7%	91.7%

Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Brighton & Hove (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Brighton & Hove Albion will win (55 of 60 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.68% – 98.66%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brighton & Hove Albion will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 12. Humphreys B. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. (C) 3. Hartman Q. 20. Ward-Prowse J. 16. Florentino 10. Edwards M. 8. Ugochukwu L. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.	1. Verbruggen B. (G) 27. Wieffer M. 6. van Hecke J. P. 21. Boscagli O. 24. Kadioglu F. 26. Ayari Y. 30. Gross P. 25. Gomez D. 13. Hinshelwood J. 11. Minteh Y. 18. Welbeck D. (C)
Substitutes
27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 9. Foster L. 23. Lucas Pires 17. Tchaouna L. 31. Tresor Ndayishimiye M. 2. Walker K. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.	17. Baleba C. 29. De Cuyper M. 3. Igor 19. Kostoulas C. 7. March S. 22. Mitoma K. 10. Rutter G. 23. Steele J. (G) 34. Veltman J.
Coaches
Parker S.	Crofts A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Esteve M. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Wieffer M. ⚽, Gross P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', van Hecke J. P. 🟨,
60', Florentino 🟨,
67', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
75', Welbeck D. ↓, Rutter G. ↑,
75', Hinshelwood J. ↓, Baleba C. ↑,
75', Edwards M. ↓, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ↑,
80', Minteh Y. ↓, Mitoma K. ↑,
82', Florentino ↓, Broja A. ↑,
82', Hartman Q. ↓, Lucas Pires ↑,
82', Humphreys B. ↓, Walker K. ↑,
88', Gomez D. ↓, Veltman J. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Wieffer M. ⚽, Ayari Y. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1.

Burnley has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brighton & Hove is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Brighton & Hove is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Laurent J. (Red Card) Mejbri H. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Muscle Injury) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Dunk L. (Yellow Cards) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.7:1).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Brighton: 2.56%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16:5	11	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
21.03.26	Fulham - Burnley	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Everton - Burnley	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Burnley - Brentford	3:4 ✺
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LTLLT
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
21.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Liverpool	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Sunderland - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:1 ✺
04.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Brentford - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
03.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	2:0
13.04.24	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1
09.12.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	1:1
19.02.22	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	0:3
14.08.21	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2
06.02.21	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1
06.11.20	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	0:0

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