Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Bristol City		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.12	3.35	3.54	Watch
	2.16	3.36	3.71
	2.13	3.32	3.59	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.1	3.46	3.48	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.5)	3.36 ↓ (3.51)	3.51 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
44.6%

Draw
28.3%

Luton Town
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

27%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

27.3%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bristol City's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bristol City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Bristol City - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Bristol City will win (votes: 17 - 70.8%). Luton will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol City: 52.6% – 89%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. O'Leary M. (G) 2. McCrorie R. 14. Vyner Z. 16. Dickie R. 15. McNally L. 3. Pring C. 7. Hirakawa Y. 12. Knight J. (C) 6. Bird M. 10. Twine S. 9. Mayulu F.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 14. Chong T. 29. Holmes T. 6. McGuinness M. 38. Johnson J. 7. Moses V. 8. Krauss T. 17. Mpanzu P. 18. Clark J. 11. Adebayo E. 9. Morris C. (C)
Substitutes
5. Atkinson R. 23. Bajic S. (G) 20. Bell S. 40. Earthy G. 29. McGuane M. 11. Mehmeti A. 24. Roberts H. 19. Tanner G. 21. Wells N.	5. Andersen M. 27. Hashioka D. 23. Krul T. (G) 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. . Phillips J. 21. Pieters E. 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Manning L.	Edwards R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mayulu F. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Twine S. ⚽, Bird M. (A),
58', Morris C. 🟨,
58', Twine S. 🟨,
63', McCrorie R. ↓, Tanner G. ↑,
63', Hirakawa Y. ↓, Mehmeti A. ↑,
69', Mpanzu P. ↓, Woodrow C. ↑,
74', Twine S. ↓, Earthy G. ↑,
79', Moses V. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
85', Dickie R. 🟨,
86', Bird M. ↓, McGuane M. ↑,
88', Krauss T. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
88', Johnson J. ↓, Phillips J. ↑,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 12 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bristol City won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Bristol City will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Armstrong S. (Injury) Williams J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Doughty A. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Walters R. (Foot Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Bristol City won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:15 (average 1.2:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Bristol City won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:4 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Championship
22.12.24	West Bromwich Albion - Bristol City	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Bristol City - Queens Park Rangers	1:1 ✺
10.12.24	Sunderland - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Portsmouth - Bristol City	3:0 ✺
30.11.24	Bristol City - Plymouth Argyle	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTLW
- Luton Town
English League Championship
20.12.24	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
07.12.24	Luton Town - Swansea City	1:1 ✺
30.11.24	Norwich City - Luton Town	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
15.03.23	Luton Town - Bristol City	1:0
16.08.22	Bristol City - Luton Town	2:0
25.01.22	Luton Town - Bristol City	2:1
15.09.21	Bristol City - Luton Town	1:1
25.04.21	Bristol City - Luton Town	2:3
29.12.20	Luton Town - Bristol City	2:1
29.12.19	Bristol City - Luton Town	3:0

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