Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 22

Date: 20 December 2024, Friday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, StarTimes App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV7
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	mio Sports 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra, V Sport Xtra
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Luton Town		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.5
	2.18	3.21	3.55	Watch
	2.23	3.2	3.74
	2.18	3.13	3.66	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.5
	2.22	3.1	3.58	Watch
	2.18	3.21	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.12)	3.16 ↓ (3.37)	3.59 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luton Town
43.4%

Draw
30.1%

Derby County
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

27.9%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.6%	37.5%	21.9%

Luton Town - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 13 - 44.8%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 31%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 26.7% – 62.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaminski T. (G) 6. McGuinness M. 29. Holmes T. 5. Andersen M. 7. Moses V. 8. Krauss T. 18. Clark J. 14. Chong T. 19. Brown J. 9. Morris C. (C) 11. Adebayo E.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 12. Phillips N. 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. (C) 20. Elder C. 19. Jackson K. 17. Goudmijn K. 8. Osborn B. 32. Adams E. 10. Yates J.
Substitutes
40. Chigozie C. 38. Johnson J. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 21. Pieters E. 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.	7. Barkhuizen T. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 39. Brown D. 9. Collins J. 3. Forsyth C. 18. Harness M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Andersen M. 🟨,
41', Phillips N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', 0 - 1, Jackson K. ⚽,
61', Bradley S. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,
67', Elder C. 🟨,
68', Brown J. ↓, Woodrow C. ↑,
68', Moses V. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
69', Krauss T. ↓, Mpanzu P. ↑,
78', Jackson K. ↓, Collins J. ↑,
78', Yates J. ↓, Mendez-Laing N. ↑,
84', Goudmijn K. ↓, Harness M. ↑,
86', Andersen M. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
86', Clark J. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
89', Nelson C. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Mpanzu P. ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 1, Morris C. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 3.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Luton will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Calf Injury) Bell A. (Muscle Injury) Burke R. (Hip Injury) Doughty A. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Mengi T. (Knee Injury) Walsh L. (Red Card) Walsh L. (Hamstring Injury) Walters R. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Chirewa T. (Thigh Injury) Nyambe R. (Knee Injury) Ozoh D. (Muscle Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Luton won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:9 (average 1.3:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:3 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
14.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
07.12.24	Luton Town - Swansea City	1:1 ✺
30.11.24	Norwich City - Luton Town	4:2 ✺
27.11.24	Leeds United - Luton Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWTLL
- Derby County
English League Championship
13.12.24	Derby County - Portsmouth	4:0 ✺
10.12.24	Burnley - Derby County	0:0 ✺
07.12.24	Leeds United - Derby County	2:0 ✺
01.12.24	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	1:2 ✺
27.11.24	Derby County - Swansea City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
26.02.22	Luton Town - Derby County	1:0
19.10.21	Derby County - Luton Town	2:2
02.04.21	Derby County - Luton Town	2:0
19.09.20	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1
28.01.20	Luton Town - Derby County	3:2
05.10.19	Derby County - Luton Town	2:0

Upcoming Matches