Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 18

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Carrow Road (Norwich)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Norwich City		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.6	3.6	Watch
	2	3.5	3.6
	1.99	3.57	3.72	Watch
	2	3.6	3.89
	1.98	3.57	3.78	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.7
	1.98	3.64	3.69	Watch
	1.99	3.57	3.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.42)	3.57 ↑ (3.42)	3.71 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norwich City
47.8%

Draw
26.6%

Luton Town
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

27.6%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

28.5%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norwich City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Norwich City's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Norwich City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Norwich City - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Norwich will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Luton will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Norwich: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gunn A. (G) 3. Stacey J. 4. Duffy S. 6. Doyle C. 35. Fisher K. 11. Marcondes E. 23. McLean K. (C) 20. Slimane A. 18. Forson A. 17. Crnac A. 7. Sainz B.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 15. Mengi T. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Bell A. 11. Adebayo E. 26. Baptiste S. 14. Chong T. 18. Clark J. 27. Hashioka D. 19. Brown J. 9. Morris C. (C)
Substitutes
10. Barnes A. 14. Chrisene B. 5. Hanley G. 25. Hernandez O. 40. Hills B. 12. Long G. (G) 26. Nunez M. 29. Schwartau O. 19. Sorensen J.	5. Andersen M. 29. Holmes T. 8. Krauss T. 23. Krul T. (G) 7. Moses V. 17. Mpanzu P. 13. Nakamba M. 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Thorup J.	Edwards R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Adebayo E. ⚽, Clark J. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Crnac A. ⚽, Forson A. (A),
33', 2 - 1, Crnac A. ⚽, Stacey J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Chong T. ↓, Moses V. ↑,
48', 2 - 2, Brown J. ⚽,
62', Forson A. ↓, Hernandez O. ↑,
63', Hernandez O. 🟨,
67', Brown J. ↓, Woodrow C. ↑,
71', McGuinness M. 🟨,
74', Woodrow C. 🟨,
74', Slimane A. ↓, Nunez M. ↑,
75', Morris C. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
75', Baptiste S. ↓, Krauss T. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Marcondes E. ⚽, Crnac A. (A),
86', 4 - 2, Sainz B. ⚽, Hernandez O. (A),
87', Crnac A. ↓, Schwartau O. ↑,
88', Marcondes E. ↓, Sorensen J. ↑,
88', Sainz B. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
88', Bell A. ↓, Holmes T. ↑,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Norwich won 1.

Norwich is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Luton is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Luton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Norwich will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Norwich: Forsyth G. (Knee Injury) Nunez M. (Hip Injury) Sargent J. (Groin Injury) Slimane A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Walters R. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Knock)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Norwich won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:12 (average 1.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Norwich won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Norwich City
English League Championship
26.11.24	Norwich City - Plymouth Argyle	6:1 ✺
23.11.24	West Bromwich Albion - Norwich City	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Norwich City - Bristol City	0:2 ✺
05.11.24	Sheffield Wednesday - Norwich City	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Cardiff City - Norwich City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLLL
- Luton Town
English League Championship
27.11.24	Leeds United - Luton Town	3:0 ✺
23.11.24	Luton Town - Hull City	1:0 ✺
09.11.24	Middlesbrough - Luton Town	5:1 ✺
06.11.24	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
01.11.24	Luton Town - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
26.12.22	Luton Town - Norwich City	2:1
18.10.22	Norwich City - Luton Town	0:1
06.03.21	Norwich City - Luton Town	3:0
02.12.20	Luton Town - Norwich City	3:1
English League Cup
05.09.20	Luton Town - Norwich City	3:1
Club Friendly
27.07.19	Luton Town - Norwich City	1:5
25.07.18	Luton Town - Norwich City	1:3

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