Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 20

Date: 10 December 2024, Tuesday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Luton Town		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.7
	2.05	3.5	3.5
	2.08	3.45	3.55
	2.08	3.5	3.93
	2.03	3.38	3.84	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.4
	2	3.62	3.62	Watch
	2.08	3.45	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.22)	3.46 ↑ (3.36)	3.64 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
46.4%

Draw
27.4%

Stoke City
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

26.9%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.1%	33.3%	28.6%

Luton Town - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Stoke will win (votes: 6 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 17.3% – 58.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 27. Hashioka D. 6. McGuinness M. 29. Holmes T. 14. Chong T. 8. Krauss T. 18. Clark J. 7. Moses V. 11. Adebayo E. 19. Brown J. 9. Morris C. (C)	1. Johansson V. (G) 16. Wilmot B. 5. Rose M. (C) 26. Phillips A. 11. Koumas L. 12. Seko T. 6. Burger W. 17. Bocat E. 42. Manhoef M. 10. Bae J. 9. Cannon T.
Substitutes
5. Andersen M. 38. Johnson J. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 1. Shea J. (G) 25. Taylor J. 10. Woodrow C.	13. Bonham J. (G) 23. Gibson B. 2. Gooch L. 24. Moran A. 30. Sidibe S. 3. Stevens E. 22. Tchamadeu J. 37. Tezgel E. 7. Vidigal A.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Pelach N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Cannon T. ⚽, Manhoef M. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Clark J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Chong T. 🟨,
84', Bae J. ↓, Moran A. ↑,
85', Burger W. 🟨,
89', Koumas L. 🟨,
89', Koumas L. ↓, Gooch L. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Adebayo E. ⚽, Krauss T. (A),
90+1', Burger W. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 18 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Luton will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Burke R. (Hip Injury) Doughty A. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Walsh L. (Hamstring Injury) Walters R. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Gallagher S. (Calf Injury) Lawal B. (Leg Injury) Pearson B. (Muscle Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Luton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5:15 (average 0.6:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:6 (average 0.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
07.12.24	Luton Town - Swansea City	1:1 ✺
30.11.24	Norwich City - Luton Town	4:2 ✺
27.11.24	Leeds United - Luton Town	3:0 ✺
23.11.24	Luton Town - Hull City	1:0 ✺
09.11.24	Middlesbrough - Luton Town	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLWL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
07.12.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Stoke City - Burnley	0:2 ✺
26.11.24	Stoke City - Preston North End	0:0 ✺
23.11.24	Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Stoke City - Millwall	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.02.23	Luton Town - Stoke City	1:0
08.11.22	Stoke City - Luton Town	2:0
23.02.22	Stoke City - Luton Town	1:2
06.11.21	Luton Town - Stoke City	0:1
20.02.21	Stoke City - Luton Town	3:0
17.10.20	Luton Town - Stoke City	0:2
29.02.20	Luton Town - Stoke City	1:1

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