Match Info

Championship - Round 22

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Bristol City		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.6	2.35	Watch
	2.72	3.56	2.47	Watch
	2.78	3.56	2.54
	2.71	3.58	2.47	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.45
	2.67	3.44	2.46	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.57)	3.51 ↓ (3.58)	2.46 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
34.8%

Draw
26.9%

Middlesbrough
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

26.4%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

27%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Bristol City - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bristol City will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 59% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bristol City (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Middlesbrough (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Middlesbrough (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. O'Leary M. (G) 2. McCrorie R. 16. Dickie R. 14. Vyner Z. 3. Pring C. 10. Twine S. 4. Randell A. 12. Knight J. 11. Mehmeti A. 30. Armstrong S. 18. Riis E.	31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 12. Ayling L. 5. Jones A. 3. Targett M. 11. Whittaker M. 14. Gilbert A. 7. Hackney H. (C) 8. McGree R. 13. Strelec D. 9. Conway T.
Substitutes
5. Atkinson R. 27. Cornick H. 7. Hirakawa Y. 13. Lumley J. (G) 9. Mayulu F. 34. Meerholz J. 24. Roberts H. 26. Stokes J. 25. Yeboah E.	24. Bangura A. 16. Browne A. 10. Burgzorg D. 25. Edmundson G. 17. Hamilton M. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 19. Nypan S. 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S.
Coaches
Struber G.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', McGree R. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
17', 1 - 0, Riis E. ⚽,
25', Whittaker M. 🟨,
33', Targett M. 🟨,
36', Armstrong S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Mehmeti A. ↓, Atkinson R. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Atkinson R. ⚽, Twine S. (A),
73', Conway T. ↓, Sene M. K. ↑,
73', Targett M. ↓, Bangura A. ↑,
74', Nypan S. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
74', Riis E. ↓, Mayulu F. ↑,
84', Gilbert A. ↓, Burgzorg D. ↑,
87', Ayling L. 🟨,
87', Pring C. 🟨,
90', Armstrong S. ↓, Hirakawa Y. ↑,
90', Pring C. ↓, Roberts H. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 4.

Bristol City is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Middlesbrough is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Bristol City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Atkinson R. (Hamstring Injury) Bird M. (Calf Injury) McNally L. (Knee Injury) Williams J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Fry D. (Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Morris A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.79%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Championship
13.12.25	Coventry City - Bristol City	1:0 ✺
10.12.25	Bristol City - Leicester City	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	Bristol City - Millwall	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Portsmouth - Bristol City	0:1 ✺
26.11.25	Wrexham - Bristol City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWL
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
13.12.25	Middlesbrough - Queens Park Rangers	3:1 ✺
09.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Hull City - Middlesbrough	1:4 ✺
29.11.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Middlesbrough - Coventry City	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.02.25	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:1
19.10.24	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	0:2
10.02.24	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	1:2
25.11.23	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	3:2
10.04.23	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:2
05.11.22	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	1:1
19.02.22	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:1

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