Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Zapping


	CS Alagoano		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3	3.6
	1.85	3	4.15	Watch
	1.92	3.13	4.43
	1.79	3.16	5.02	Watch
	2	2.8	3.75
	1.88	3.04	4.32	Watch
	2.12	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.1)	3.02 ↑ (2.99)	4.11 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CS Alagoano
47.4%

Draw
30.3%

Ponte Preta
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

30.4%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

31.4%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CS Alagoano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CS Alagoano than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

CS Alagoano - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. CSA will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for CSA: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. CSA (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Ponte Preta (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Felix (G) 5. Camacho (C) 99. Ciel 14. Diogo Batista 3. Eduardo Biazus 6. Enzo 11. Guilherme Cachoeira 4. Islan 22. Ramon 8. Silas 9. Tiago Marques	12. Diogo Silva (G) 15. Artur 77. Bruno Lopes 17. Jonas Toro 55. Leo Oliveira 27. Luiz Felipe 28. Pacheco 5. Rodrigo Souza 4. Saimon 6. Sergio Raphael 34. Wanderson
Substitutes
18. Adiel 10. Brayann 25. Cavalleri M. 2. Felipe Albuquerque 15. Gustavo Nicola 13. Leonan Santos 20. Luciano Naninho 17. Marcelinho 12. Paulo V. (G) 16. Roberto 7. Robinho 21. Vander	7. Diego Tavares 35. Gustavo Lopes 20. Joao Gabriel 11. Kaio Ganga 62. Kevyn 36. Leocovick 18. Matheus Kayser (G) 80. Pedrinho 1. Pedro Rocha (G)
Coaches
Higo	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Diogo Batista 🟨,
20', Saimon 🟥,
28', Leo Oliveira 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Leo Oliveira ↓, Gustavo Lopes ↑,
46', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Brayann ↑,
52', Brayann 🟨,
58', 0 - 1, Jonas Toro ⚽,
60', Silas ↓, Luciano Naninho ↑,
60', Diogo Batista ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
66', Bruno Lopes ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
70', Artur 🟨,
71', Tiago Marques ↓, Robinho ↑,
73', Artur ↓, Kevyn ↑,
73', Jonas Toro ↓, Matheus Kayser ↑,
73', Pacheco ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
79', Eduardo Biazus 🟥,
80', 0 - 2, Diogo Silva (Pen),
83', Camacho 🟨,
86', Ramon 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Ciel ⚽,
90+7', Enzo 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Ponte Preta is Qualified for Serie C (Second stage )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSA won 3.

Recent form of CSA has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ponte Preta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ponte Preta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

CSA is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, CSA won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, CSA won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Alagoano
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	CS Alagoano - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
16.08.25	CS Alagoano - Ituano	2:2 ✺
11.08.25	Itabaiana - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.25	Vasco da Gama - CS Alagoano	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
02.08.25	CS Alagoano - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LTLLW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
16.08.25	Ponte Preta - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Botafogo PB - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Caxias - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Ponte Preta - Floresta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.10.22	Ponte Preta - CS Alagoano	0:2
07.07.22	CS Alagoano - Ponte Preta	0:1
29.09.21	CS Alagoano - Ponte Preta	2:1
30.06.21	Ponte Preta - CS Alagoano	2:1
28.11.20	CS Alagoano - Ponte Preta	2:1
21.08.20	Ponte Preta - CS Alagoano	2:1
12.10.18	CS Alagoano - Ponte Preta	1:2

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