Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 17

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Ponte Preta		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	3.25	5.5
	1.68	3.2	4.85	Watch
	1.71	3.4	5.4
	1.54	3.73	6.30	Watch
	1.62	3.1	5.5
	1.69	3.26	5.04	Watch
	1.73	3.2	4.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.64)	3.31 ↓ (3.48)	5.34 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
55.3%

Draw
27.6%

Itabaiana
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

26.1%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

26.4%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ponte Preta - Itabaiana Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Itabaiana (2.02) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Itabaiana (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 15. Artur 77. Bruno Lopes 21. Dudu 10. Elvis 18. Emerson Santos 9. Jeh 17. Jonas Toro 28. Pacheco 5. Rodrigo Souza 34. Wanderson	1. Leo Souza (G) 4. Betao (C) 8. Carlos Coppetti 3. Fredson 6. Gabriel Marques 5. Gustavo Crecci 10. Karl 11. Kauan Santos 7. Leilson 2. Lucas Marques 9. Robinho
Substitutes
35. Gustavo Lopes 7. Jean Dias 8. Jhonny Lucas 20. Joao Gabriel 11. Kaio Ganga 62. Kevyn 36. Leocovick 30. Matheus Kayser (G) 33. Nikolas 4. Saimon 37. Serginho 6. Sergio Raphael	14. Caio Felipe 21. David 22. DG 17. Dione 13. Elimar 20. Fabricio Oya 12. Jefferson (G) 16. Joao Maranhao 19. Joao Vitor 18. Rhuan Silveira 15. Vini Locatelli

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Emerson Santos 🟨,
18', Gustavo Crecci ↓, Joao Maranhao ↑,
19', Dudu 🟨,
36', Kauan Santos 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Jonas Toro ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Gabriel Marques 🟨,
62', Jeh 🟨,
63', Leilson ↓, David ↑,
63', Robinho ↓, Elimar ↑,
65', Dudu ↓, Gustavo Lopes ↑,
69', Jeh ↓, Serginho ↑,
69', Emerson Santos ↓, Sergio Raphael ↑,
75', Kauan Santos ↓, Fabricio Oya ↑,
75', Gabriel Marques ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
76', Bruno Lopes ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
84', Elvis 🟨,
86', Fabricio Oya 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 15).

Ponte Preta is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Itabaiana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Ponte Preta is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ponte Preta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
09.08.25	Botafogo PB - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Caxias - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Ponte Preta - Floresta	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLWL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
11.08.25	Itabaiana - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
04.08.25	Brusque - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
27.07.25	Itabaiana - Ituano	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Londrina - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
12.07.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
04.04.13	Itabaiana - Ponte Preta	0:3

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