Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 33

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Referee: Abed K. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free


	Caen		Red Star

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.4	3.6	2.65
	2.85	3.3	2.4
	2.94	3.35	2.56
	2.79	3.43	2.41	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.62
	2.9	3.37	2.54	Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (1.89)	3.39 ↓ (3.59)	2.5 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
34.3%

Draw
27.9%

Red Star
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

25.9%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

25.2%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caen's form might have worsened.

Red Star has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Red Star's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Star, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	63.2%	26.3%

Caen - Red Star Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Caen will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Red Star will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Red Star (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Red Star (1.70) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Red Star (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Red Star (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Red Star (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mandrea A. (G) 26. Tavares H. 24. Benrahou Y. 61. Traore B. 27. Gaudin J. 36. Verhaeghe R. 20. Lebreton N. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 21. Grandsir S. 17. Kyeremeh G. 18. Coulibaly K.	40. Risser R. (G) 20. Durivaux D. 4. Mendy B. 28. Kouagba L. (C) 10. Ifnaoui M. 8. Eickmayer J. 26. Dembi F. J. 98. Hachem R. 11. Cisse K. 21. Badji A. 7. Durand D.
Substitutes
10. Brahimi B. 16. Clementia Y. (G) 19. Mendy A. 37. Milliner L. 5. Moucketou-Moussounda A. 50. Najim I. 39. Tome G.	1. Beunardeau Q. (G) 5. Escartin J. 9. Fall A. 24. Lemonnier P. 19. Mbock H. 2. Meyapya B. 97. Renel S.
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	Poirier G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Badji A. ⚽, Hachem R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Benrahou Y. ↓, Najim I. ↑,
55', Coulibaly K. ↓, Mendy A. ↑,
55', Tavares H. ↓, Milliner L. ↑,
64', Kyeremeh G. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
70', Dembi F. J. ↓, Mbock H. ↑,
70', Eickmayer J. ↓, Renel S. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Najim I. ⚽, Lebreton N. (A),
79', Cisse K. ↓, Lemonnier P. ↑,
80', Badji A. ↓, Fall A. ↑,
84', Durivaux D. 🟨,
88', Durand D. ↓, Escartin J. ↑,
90+4', Escartin J. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 15).

Caen is Relegated to National

Caen has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Red Star has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Caen: Autret M. (Inactive) Benrahou Y. (Inactive) Henry V. (Inactive) Ntim E. (Thigh Injury) Rajot L. (Inactive) Thomas R. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Red Star: Avognan W. (Injury) Benali H. (Injury) Danger B. (Injury) Doucoure F. (Injury) Doucoure R. (Injury) Lemonnier P. (Injury) Slimani R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Caen: Gaucho Debohi D. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caen won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
26.04.25	Lorient - Caen	4:0 ✺
18.04.25	Caen - Martigues	0:3 ✺
11.04.25	Rodez - Caen	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Caen - Metz	2:2 ✺
31.03.25	Paris FC - Caen	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLTTL
- Red Star FC 93
French Ligue 2
25.04.25	Red Star - Clermont	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Metz - Red Star	2:2 ✺
11.04.25	Red Star - Annecy	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Troyes - Red Star	2:2 ✺
28.03.25	Red Star - Rodez	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
18.10.24	Red Star - Caen	2:2
Coupe De France
05.01.19	Red Star - Caen	0:1

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