Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 12

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Frosinone		Perugia

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	5.75	Watch
	1.66	3.6	5.25
	1.62	3.55	5.75
	1.62	3.55	5.6
	1.67	3.65	6.37
	1.62	3.6	5.8
	1.66	3.75	5.2	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.62)	3.61 ↓ (3.67)	5.64 ↑ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frosinone
57.3%

Draw
26.1%

Perugia
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

25.1%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

24.1%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97.8%	0%	2.2%

Frosinone - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: Frosinone will win (45 of 46 users predict this - 97.83%).
Confidence interval (95%): 93.62% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Frosinone has the most likely position - 1 (24.55%), has project points - 67, has currently - 24, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (47%), has a chance of promoted (50%), has a chance of win league (25%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (23.53%), has project points - 37, has currently - 7, has a good chance of relegated (63%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, importance 55, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Frosinone won 1.

Frosinone is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Perugia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Frosinone is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Frosinone to win the game is with odds 1.62.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Frosinone won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Frosinone won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
29.10.22	Nuova Cosenza - Frosinone	1:2 ✺
22.10.22	Frosinone - Bari	1:0 ✺
14.10.22	Venezia - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
08.10.22	Frosinone - SPAL	2:0 ✺
01.10.22	Parma - Frosinone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
30.10.22	Perugia - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
22.10.22	Reggina - Perugia	2:3 ✺
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
09.10.22	Como - Perugia	1:0 ✺
01.10.22	Perugia - Pisa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
12.02.22	Perugia - Frosinone	3:0
11.09.21	Frosinone - Perugia	0:0
16.02.20	Frosinone - Perugia	1:0
24.09.19	Perugia - Frosinone	3:1
24.02.18	Frosinone - Perugia	1:3
23.09.17	Perugia - Frosinone	1:0
28.02.17	Perugia - Frosinone	1:1

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