The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Northampton Town 12.7%
Draw 23.6%
Derby County 63.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
20.5%
25.2%
54.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
19.6%
24.1%
56.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Northampton Town's form might have worsened.
Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Northampton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
3.4%
6.9%
89.7%
Northampton Town - Derby County Predictions
Users Predictions:
Derby County will win
(26 of 29 users predict this - 89.66%). Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Moulden L. (G) 3. McGowan A. (C) 26. Moore L. 6. Sherring S. 12. Monthe M. 21. Leonard M. 4. Sowerby J. 8. Fox B. 11. Pinnock M. 9. Appere L. 7. Hoskins S.
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 2. Wilson K. 16. Thompson L. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 32. Adams E. 17. Sibley L. 10. Waghorn M. 11. Mendez-Laing N.
Substitutes
19. Bowie K. 36. Dadge J. (G) 29. Gape D. 23. Hondermarck W. 14. Koiki A. 17. McWilliams S. 16. Simpson T.
27. Blackett-Taylor C. 20. Elder C. 13. Loach S. (G) 36. Radcliffe B. 12. Smith K. 23. Ward J. 14. Washington C.
Coaches
Brady J.
Warne P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Pinnock M. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Hoskins S. ⚽, Appere L. (A),
45', Sibley L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Cashin E. 🟨,
60', McGowan A. ↓, Hondermarck W. ↑,
64', Adams E. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
64', Sibley L. ↓, Elder C. ↑,
64', Thompson L. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
65', Leonard M. 🟨,
70', Waghorn M. ↓, Washington C. ↑,
70', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
88', Moore L. ↓, Koiki A. ↑,
89', Fox B. ↓, Simpson T. ↑,
89', Appere L. ↓, McWilliams S. ↑,
90', Hoskins S. ↓, Bowie K. ↑,
90+10', Bradley S. 🟥,
Preview
Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).
Northampton is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Derby is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Recently Derby have a series of home games.
In this match Derby is indisputable favorite.
Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-9.
Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.
Watch
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Moulden L. (G) 
Moore L. 
Monthe M. 
Leonard M. 
Cashin E. 
Adams E. 
Mendez-Laing N. 
Hondermarck W. 
Elder C. 
Washington C. 
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