Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 44

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)


	Derby County		Leyton Orient

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	7
	1.46	4.2	6.75
	1.47	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.34	7.21
	1.47	4.41	7.39
	1.44	4.2	7
	1.48	4.33	6.9	Watch
	1.42	4.2	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.53)	4.28 ↑ (4.07)	6.92 ↑ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
64.4%

Draw
22%

Leyton Orient
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22.9%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

22.4%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Leyton Orient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Derby County - Leyton Orient Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Leyton Orient will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 2. Wilson K. 12. Smith K. 32. Adams E. 17. Sibley L. 16. Thompson L. 9. Collins J. 11. Mendez-Laing N. (C)	1. Brynn S. (G) 22. Galbraith E. 19. Beckles O. 4. Simpson J. 2. James T. 18. Pratley D. (C) 8. Brown J. 17. Forde S. 14. Moncur G. 21. O'Neill O. 47. Edwards K.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 22. Fornah T. 4. Hourihane C. 31. Vickers J. (G) 10. Waghorn M. 14. Washington C.	20. Adu Adjei D. 7. Agyei D. 40. Chinedu P. 13. Howes S. (G) 32. Hunt R. 29. Obiero Z. 23. Sanders M. H.
Coaches
Warne P.	Wellens R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Moncur G. (Own goal),
18', 2 - 0, Bradley S. ⚽, Sibley L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Edwards K. ↓, Agyei D. ↑,
53', Galbraith E. 🟨,
63', Moncur G. ↓, Hunt R. ↑,
77', James T. ↓, Sanders M. H. ↑,
77', Pratley D. ↓, Obiero Z. ↑,
78', Thompson L. ↓, Hourihane C. ↑,
82', Cashin E. 🟨,
86', 3 - 0, Bradley S. ⚽, Hourihane C. (A),
88', Collins J. ↓, Washington C. ↑,
88', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
88', Smith K. ↓, Fornah T. ↑,
89', Adams E. ↓, Waghorn M. ↑,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 10).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is certain favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
10.04.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Derby County	0:0 ✺
02.04.24	Portsmouth - Derby County	2:2 ✺
29.03.24	Derby County - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Northampton Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTWLW
- Leyton Orient
English League One
09.04.24	Leyton Orient - Exeter City	2:2 ✺
06.04.24	Leyton Orient - Cheltenham Town	3:1 ✺
01.04.24	Leyton Orient - Peterborough United	1:2 ✺
29.03.24	Lincoln City - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Stevenage Borough - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
09.12.23	Leyton Orient - Derby County	0:3

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