Match Info

Date: 5 April 2022, Tuesday


	Caracas		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	5	3.5	1.75
	4.4	3.3	1.83
	4.75	3.25	1.8	Watch
	4.4	3.2	1.85
	5.02	3.51	1.81
	4.4	3.1	1.83	Watch
	4.7	3.44	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.67 ↑ (3.29)	3.33 ↑ (3.24)	1.81 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caracas
20.1%

Draw
28.2%

Athletico Paranaense
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

28.9%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

29.2%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caracas's form might have worsened.

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caracas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.1%	9.4%	87.5%

Caracas - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (28 of 32 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.04% – 98.96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Athletico PR could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Athletico PR is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Caracas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Caracas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
31.03.22	Academia Puerto Cabello - Caracas	0:0 ✺
26.03.22	Caracas - Portuguesa Acarígua	1:1 ✺
20.03.22	Metropolitanos - Caracas	3:0 ✺
12.03.22	Caracas - Zamora	1:1 ✺
03.03.22	Deportivo Lara - Caracas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TTLTT
- Athletico Paranaense
Club Friendly
28.03.22	Athletico Paranaense - América Mineiro	4:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
27.03.22	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
23.03.22	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
20.03.22	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	3:1 penalties ✺
13.03.22	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
03.10.18	Athletico Paranaense - Caracas	2:1
19.09.18	Caracas - Athletico Paranaense	0:2

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