Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 24

Date: 29 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Allison S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
Usa	Paramount+


	Watford		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.77	3.7	4.5
	1.79	3.72	4.46	Watch
	2	3.56	3.74
	1.77	3.73	4.63	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.6
	1.78	3.78	4.43	Watch
	1.79	3.72	4.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.96)	3.68 ↑ (3.59)	4.39 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
52.5%

Draw
25.9%

Cardiff City
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

26.4%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.5%	5.4%	8.1%

Watford - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: Watford will win (32 of 37 users predict this - 86.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.48% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bachmann D. (G) 45. Andrews R. 6. Pollock M. 5. Porteous R. 37. Larouci Y. 10. Louza I. 11. Vata R. 17. Sissoko M. (C) 39. Kayembe E. 8. Chakvetadze G. 19. Bayo V.	21. Alnwick J. (C) 5. Daland J. 4. Goutas D. 12. Chambers C. 35. Rinomhota A. 3. Siopis M. 18. Robertson A. 11. O'Dowda C. 47. Robinson C. 45. Ashford C. 16. Willock C.
Substitutes
23. Bond J. (G) 14. Dwomoh P. 36. Ebosele F. 7. Ince T. 18. Jebbison D. 22. Morris J. 2. Ngakia J. 21. Ogbonna A. 3. Sierralta F.	23. Bagan J. 27. Colwill R. 20. El Ghazi A. 2. Fish W. 1. Horvath E. (G) 15. Kanga W. 44. Kpakio R. 19. Meite Y. 32. Tanner O.
Coaches
Cleverley T.	Riza O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Robinson C. ⚽, O'Dowda C. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Chakvetadze G. ⚽, Vata R. (A),
42', 1 - 2, Robinson C. ⚽, Ashford C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Porteous R. ↓, Sierralta F. ↑,
55', Rinomhota A. 🟨,
57', Vata R. ↓, Ebosele F. ↑,
58', Bayo V. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,
60', Louza I. 🟨,
64', Willock C. ↓, Tanner O. ↑,
67', Louza I. ↓, Ince T. ↑,
69', Chambers C. 🟨,
74', Chambers C. ↓, Bagan J. ↑,
81', Daland J. 🟨,
86', Andrews R. 🟨,
89', Ashford C. ↓, Meite Y. ↑,
89', O'Dowda C. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Watford won 2.

Recent matches Watford is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cardiff is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Watford could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Watford is a favorite.

There will not play in Watford: Baah K. (Red Card) Dele-Bashiru T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Etete K. (Leg Injury) Ramsey A. (Muscle Injury) Tsunoda R. (Muscle Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Watford won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 21:19 (average 1.4:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Watford won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:8 (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
26.12.24	Watford - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Burnley - Watford	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Watford - West Bromwich Albion	2:1 ✺
11.12.24	Hull City - Watford	1:1 ✺
30.11.24	Watford - Queens Park Rangers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWTT
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
26.12.24	Oxford United - Cardiff City	3:2 ✺
21.12.24	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	0:2 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
11.12.24	Cardiff City - Preston North End	0:2 ✺
30.11.24	Coventry City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
03.02.24	Watford - Cardiff City	0:1
07.10.23	Cardiff City - Watford	1:1
19.04.23	Watford - Cardiff City	1:3
02.11.22	Cardiff City - Watford	1:2
13.03.21	Cardiff City - Watford	1:2
05.12.20	Watford - Cardiff City	0:1
English Premier League
22.02.19	Cardiff City - Watford	1:5

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