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Current Win Probability
Cardiff City 45.5%
Draw 30.2%
Derby County 24.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.5%
28.3%
29.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.2%
27.8%
28.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
42.3%
15.4%
42.3%
Cardiff City - Derby County Predictions
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 11 - 42.3%). Derby will win (votes: 11 - 42.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 15.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 23.3% – 61.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
21. Alnwick J. (G) 35. Rinomhota A. 4. Goutas D. 5. Daland J. 38. Ng P. 8. Ralls J. (C) 12. Chambers C. 18. Robertson A. 45. Ashford C. 47. Robinson C. 16. Willock C.
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 3. Forsyth C. 6. Cashin E. 20. Elder C. 32. Adams E. 8. Osborn B. (C) 17. Goudmijn K. 10. Yates J. 15. Salvesen L. 27. Blackett-Taylor C.
Substitutes
27. Colwill R. 20. El Ghazi A. 2. Fish W. 49. Giles L. 1. Horvath E. (G) 19. Meite Y. 56. Pearce L. 22. Salech Y. 3. Siopis M.
7. Barkhuizen T. 18. Harness M. 19. Jackson K. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 4. Ozoh D. 21. Rooney J. 16. Thompson L. 40. Turley F. 31. Vickers J. (G)
Coaches
Riza O.
Warne P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Chambers C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', Willock C. ↓, El Ghazi A. ↑,
58', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Mendez-Laing N. ↑,
59', Ng P. 🟨,
62', 1 - 0, Robinson C. ⚽,
64', 2 - 0, El Ghazi A. ⚽, Robinson C. (A),
67', Robertson A. ↓, Salech Y. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Salvesen L. ⚽, Yates J. (A),
75', Elder C. 🟨,
77', Elder C. ↓, Harness M. ↑,
84', Robinson C. ↓, Fish W. ↑,
84', Ashford C. ↓, Meite Y. ↑,
86', Goudmijn K. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
86', Osborn B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
86', Yates J. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
Preview
This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 3.
Cardiff is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Derby has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Cardiff will have a poor advantage in this game.
There will not play in Cardiff: Davies I.
(Leg Injury)
O'Dowda C.
(Muscle Injury)
Ramsey A.
(Muscle Injury)
Reindorf M.
(Ankle Injury)
Turnbull D.
(Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Derby: Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Nyambe R.
(Knee Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Wilson K.
(Hamstring Injury)
Last 18 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 23:21 (average 1.3:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Cardiff won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:7 (average 1.3:0.8).
Hungary
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Alnwick J. (G) 
Rinomhota A. 
Goutas D. 
Daland J. 
Robertson A. 
Ashford C. 
Robinson C. 
Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 
Nyambe R. 
Forsyth C. 
Adams E. 
Goudmijn K. 
Horvath E. (G) 
Meite Y. 
Salech Y. 
Mendez-Laing N. 
Riza O. 
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