Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Brisbane Road (London)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Sportsnet Now Plus
China	Migu
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Daystar Pacific, Disney+


	Leyton Orient		Derby County

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.3	3.3	3
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (3.11)	3.3 ↓ (3.31)	3 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leyton Orient
40.6%

Draw
28.3%

Derby County
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

28.5%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

28.6%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leyton Orient's performance.

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leyton Orient that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	16.7%	58.3%

Leyton Orient - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Leyton Orient will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 28. Clare S. 4. Simpson J. 19. Beckles O. 12. Currie J. 18. Pratley D. (C) 27. Jaiyesimi D. 20. Perkins S. 17. Donley J. 22. Galbraith E. 23. Kelman C.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 12. Phillips N. 3. Forsyth C. 17. Goudmijn K. 16. Thompson L. 39. Brown D. 18. Harness M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. (C) 27. Blackett-Taylor C.
Substitutes
8. Brown J. 36. Carter D. 6. Cooper B. 41. Hambury Z. 2. James T. 29. Obiero Z. 26. Phillips N. (G) 3. Sweeney J. 39. Wellens R.	32. Adams E. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J. 20. Elder C. 19. Jackson K. 8. Osborn B. 42. Osong J. 21. Rooney J. 31. Vickers J. (G)
Coaches
Wellens R.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Kelman C. ⚽, Perkins S. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Brown D. ⚽, Harness M. (A),
43', Pratley D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Thompson L. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
46', Phillips N. ↓, Elder C. ↑,
62', Pratley D. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
68', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
68', Brown D. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
71', Jaiyesimi D. ↓, James T. ↑,
74', Donley J. 🟨,
75', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Collins J. ↑,
82', Galbraith E. ↓, Sweeney J. ↑,
84', Adams E. 🟨,
90+2', Clare S. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
100', Simpson J. ↓, Cooper B. ↑,
101', Perkins S. ↓, Obiero Z. ↑,
113', Clare S. 🟨,
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, Collins J. (Pen),
1, Donley J. (Pen),
2, Goudmijn K. (Pen),
2, James T. (Pen),
3, Harness M. (Pen),
3, Brown J. (Pen),
4, Jackson K. (Pen),
4, Cooper B. (Pen),
5, Barkhuizen T. (Pen),
5, Kelman C. (Pen),
6, Elder C. (Pen),
6, Obiero Z. (Pen),

Preview

Leyton Orient in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Derby is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Our prediction for today's Leyton Orient to win the game is with odds 2.8.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Leyton Orient won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:6 (average 0:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Leyton Orient won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Last Results with these Odds

Leyton Orient - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 30.27%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leyton Orient
English League One
04.01.25	Leyton Orient - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
01.01.25	Bristol Rovers - Leyton Orient	2:3 ✺
29.12.24	Leyton Orient - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
26.12.24	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
21.12.24	Barnsley - Leyton Orient	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWWWW
- Derby County
English League Championship
04.01.25	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0 ✺
01.01.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	4:2 ✺
29.12.24	Derby County - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
26.12.24	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	2:1 ✺
20.12.24	Luton Town - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
13.04.24	Derby County - Leyton Orient	3:0
09.12.23	Leyton Orient - Derby County	0:3

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