Match Info

Championship - Round 30

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League, SupeSport ESPN 1
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Netherlands	Viaplay
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North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
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Norway	Viaplay
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Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
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United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Bristol City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.7
	1.99	3.57	3.72	Watch
	2.02	3.63	3.84
	1.98	3.6	3.69	Watch
	2	3.3	3.6
	1.99	3.48	3.6	Watch
	2	3.5	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.94)	3.49 ↓ (3.5)	3.69 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
47.4%

Draw
27.1%

Derby County
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.1%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

28%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.8%	47.8%	17.4%

Bristol City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Bristol City will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). Derby will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.7% – 66.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 2 - 20%). Derby (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH 0 - Derby (2.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Bristol City (1.31) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Derby (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vitek R. (G) 19. Tanner G. 16. Dickie R. 3. Pring C. 17. Sykes M. 4. Randell A. 12. Knight J. (C) 2. McCrorie R. 20. Bell S. 10. Twine S. 18. Riis E.	12. O'Donnell R. (G) 23. Ward J. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 20. Elder C. 18. Ozoh D. 27. Travis L. (C) 25. Brereton Diaz B. 42. Clark B. 10. Brewster R. 7. Agyemang P.
Substitutes
30. Armstrong S. 11. Burgzorg D. 44. Earthy G. 13. Lumley J. (G) 40. Morsy S. 24. Naylor S. 21. Neto Borges 29. Pecover L. 8. Williams J.	34. Banel J. 4. Batth D. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 15. Salvesen L. 16. Thompson L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Struber G.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
11', Ozoh D. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Brewster R. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽, Clark B. (A),
36', 0 - 3, Clark B. ⚽, Brereton Diaz B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sykes M. ↓, Neto Borges ↑,
46', Bell S. ↓, Armstrong S. ↑,
60', Travis L. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
63', Twine S. ↓, Burgzorg D. ↑,
66', 0 - 4, Agyemang P. ⚽, Ward J. (A),
70', Brewster R. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
70', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
74', Randell A. ↓, Morsy S. ↑,
78', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
78', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
80', Pring C. 🟨,
88', 0 - 5, Salvesen L. ⚽, Weimann A. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Bristol City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Bird M. (Calf Injury) Mayulu F. (Inactive) McNally L. (Knee Injury) Vyner Z. (Inactive) Williams J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Morris C. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Bristol City: 2.86% Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12:13	-1	14
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.83%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Championship
24.01.26	Bristol City - Sheffield Wednesday	2:0 ✺
20.01.26	Ipswich Town - Bristol City	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Oxford United - Bristol City	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Bristol City - Watford	5:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Bristol City - Preston North End	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLTWL
- Derby County
English League Championship
23.01.26	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Preston North End - Derby County	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Derby County - Wrexham	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.08.25	Derby County - Bristol City	1:1
04.01.25	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0
31.08.24	Derby County - Bristol City	3:0
23.04.22	Derby County - Bristol City	1:3
04.12.21	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0
30.01.21	Derby County - Bristol City	1:0
21.11.20	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0

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