Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 28

Date: 21 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Allison S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Derby County		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.15
	3.54	3.35	2.12	Watch
	3.7	3.39	2.13
	3.59	3.38	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.2
	3.57	3.34	2.12	Watch
	3.54	3.35	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.33)	3.33 ↓ (3.43)	2.13 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
26.8%

Draw
28.6%

Sunderland
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

27.5%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

27.1%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Sunderland aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.2%	24.2%	51.5%

Derby County - Sunderland Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 8 - 25.8%). Sunderland will win (votes: 15 - 48.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 25.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sunderland: 30.8% – 66%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 32. Adams E. 3. Forsyth C. 20. Elder C. 2. Wilson K. 17. Goudmijn K. 19. Jackson K. 16. Thompson L. 18. Harness M. 11. Mendez-Laing N. (C) 10. Yates J.	1. Patterson A. (G) 32. Hume T. 26. Mepham C. 13. O'Nien L. 3. Cirkin D. 11. Rigg C. 4. Neil D. (C) 7. Bellingham J. 28. Le Fee E. 12. Mayenda E. 18. Isidor W.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 39. Brown D. 8. Osborn B. 21. Rooney J. 15. Salvesen L. 40. Turley F. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.	20. Abdul Samed S. 30. Aleksic M. 22. Aouchiche A. 5. Ballard D. 33. Hjelde L. F. 50. Jones H. 21. Moore S. (G) 10. Roberts P. 47. Samuel-Ogunsuyi T.
Coaches
Warne P.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Mayenda E. ⚽,
33', Bellingham J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Harness M. 🟨,
58', Jackson K. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
58', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
58', Thompson L. ↓, Osborn B. ↑,
72', Wilson K. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
72', Yates J. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
74', Mayenda E. ↓, Roberts P. ↑,
74', Cirkin D. ↓, Ballard D. ↑,
86', Rigg C. ↓, Abdul Samed S. ↑,
89', Le Fee E. ↓, Hjelde L. F. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Derby has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Sunderland is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sunderland will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Derby: Nyambe R. (Knee Injury) Phillips N. (Injury) Ward J. (Injury)

There will not play in Sunderland: Browne A. (Broken Leg) Huggins N. (Groin Injury) Mundle R. (Hamstring Injury) Poveda I. (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Groin Injury) Watson T. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Sunderland to win the game is with odds 2.13.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Derby won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.5:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
18.01.25	Derby County - Watford	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
14.01.25	Leyton Orient - Derby County	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
04.01.25	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0 ✺
01.01.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	4:2 ✺
29.12.24	Derby County - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Sunderland AFC
English League Championship
17.01.25	Burnley - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Sunderland - Stoke City	1:2 ET ✺
English League Championship
05.01.25	Sunderland - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
01.01.25	Sunderland - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
29.12.24	Stoke City - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.10.24	Sunderland - Derby County	2:0
30.03.18	Derby County - Sunderland	1:4
04.08.17	Sunderland - Derby County	1:1
Club Friendly
08.08.12	Derby County - Sunderland	N/A

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