Match Info

Cymru South - Round 27

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Cardiff Draconians		Trefelin

	1	X	2
	5.15	3.9	1.52
	5	3.96	1.55
	5.58	4.42	1.5	Watch
	5	3.6	1.53
	5.5	3.95	1.5
	4.8	3.8	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↓ (6.58)	3.94 ↓ (5.06)	1.51 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Draconians
17.4%

Draw
22.9%

Trefelin
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.1%

18.3%

67.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.6%

17.6%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Draconians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Trefelin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Draconians than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Trefelin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cardiff Draconians - Trefelin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Jones J. ⚽,
28', 0 - 2, Bowen L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', 0 - 3, Bowen L. ⚽,
73', 0 - 4, Bowen L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Trefelin is Qualified for Cymru Premier

Cardiff Draconians has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Trefelin is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Trefelin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Trefelin has had a series of home games.

In this match, Trefelin is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Draconians won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 2:3.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Cardiff Draconians	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Draconians
Welsh Cymru South
14.03.26	Cardiff Draconians - Carmarthen Town	2:3 ✺
06.03.26	Ammanford - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Treowen Stars - Cardiff Draconians	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cardiff Draconians - Baglan Dragons	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
17.03.26	Trefelin - Cambrian United	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Trefelin - Aberystwyth Town	4:0 ✺
04.03.26	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Trefelin - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
04.03.26	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	3:1
Welsh FA Cup
29.11.25	Trefelin - Cardiff Draconians	4:3 penalties

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