Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 10

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: The Oval (Caernarfon)

Referee: Pratt N. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Caernarfon Town		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	5.25
	1.37	4.60	6.00
	1.43	4.96	6.17
	1.49	4.66	5.63	Watch
	1.41	4.85	6.10
	1.37	4.55	6.38
	1.41	4.60	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.38)	4.65 ↑ (4.5)	5.9 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caernarfon Town
64.7%

Draw
19.7%

Cambrian United
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

20%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

19.5%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Cambrian United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Caernarfon Town - Cambrian United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roberts C. (C) 19. Bradley S. 6. Canavan J. 11. Cieslewicz A. 9. Clarke Z. 14. Edwards N. 3. Jones M. 23. Marriott Ch. 7. Mendes P. 16. Nash B. 27. Sears R.	1. Absalom K. (G) 15. Beecher J. 40. Bright H. 10. Eason L. 4. Evans A. 19. Hughes C. 6. John A. 5. Jones K. 14. Morris J. 7. Thomas F. 8. Woodford J.
Substitutes
10. Evans O. 5. Mooney P. 21. Nyamwanza S. 15. Smith D. 13. Thomas H. (G) 39. Wyn H. 25. Zanzala O.	36. Allen J. 9. Bonthron A. 21. Gill B. 2. Jones T. 23. Joseph J. 20. Karadogan J. 13. Morgan M. (G)
Coaches
Davies R.	Williams L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Evans A. ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Clarke Z. ⚽,
27', 2 - 1, Mendes P. ⚽,
34', Roberts C. 🟥,
34', Beecher J. 🟥,
35', Eason L. 🟨,
35', Sears R. 🟨,
39', Mendes P. ↓, Thomas H. ↑,
45+6', 3 - 1, Canavan J. ⚽,
2nd Half (6 - 0)
50', Jones K. 🟨,
55', Jones K. 🟥,
56', 4 - 1, Bradley S. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Hughes C. ↓, Allen J. ↑,
63', 5 - 1, Cieslewicz A. ⚽,
65', Clarke Z. ↓, Evans O. ↑,
65', Bradley S. ↓, Nyamwanza S. ↑,
65', Cieslewicz A. ↓, Zanzala O. ↑,
66', Eason L. ↓, Bonthron A. ↑,
74', 6 - 1, Sears R. ⚽,
75', 7 - 1, Edwards N. ⚽,
82', John A. ↓, Jones T. ↑,
82', Evans A. ↓, Joseph J. ↑,
82', Sears R. ↓, Wyn H. ↑,
84', 8 - 1, Jones M. ⚽,
90+8', 9 - 1, Zanzala O. ⚽,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 8th in the Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: )).

Caernarfon is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Cambrian United have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Caernarfon holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Caernarfon: 2.4% Cambrian United: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Caernarfon	12	7	2	3	35:14	21	23
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21:32	-11	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.09.26	Llandudno - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Ammanford - Caernarfon Town	0:5 ✺
04.09.26	Caernarfon Town - Flint Town United	3:0 ✺
31.08.26	Caernarfon Town - The New Saints	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Holywell Town - Caernarfon Town	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWWLW
- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.09.26	Trefelin - Cambrian United	0:4 ✺
11.09.26	Cambrian United - Holywell Town	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Cardiff Metropolitan - Cambrian United	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Cambrian United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTTL

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