Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 35

Date: 24 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)


	Bristol Rovers		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.65	4	5
	1.65	3.8	5
	1.63	4	5
	1.6	3.8	5.3
	1.66	4.02	5.35
	1.6	3.8	5
	1.67	3.92	5.05	Watch
	1.62	3.75	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.59)	3.89 ↓ (3.95)	5.08 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rovers
57.4%

Draw
24.1%

Carlisle United
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.5%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

17.3%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bristol Rovers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol Rovers: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ward J. (G) 42. Hunt J. 5. Wilson J. (C) 26. Baggott E. 3. Gordon L. 11. Thomas L. 22. Conteh K. 19. Vale H. 7. Sinclair S. 20. Brown J. 18. Martin C.	40. Lewis H. (G) 2. Back F. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 36. Vela J. 33. Neal H. 15. Charters T. 7. Gibson J. 35. Armstrong L. 27. Diamond J.
Substitutes
2. Connolly J. 33. Cox M. (G) 25. Crama T. 4. Grant J. 30. Hoole L. 9. Marquis J. 45. Vaughan H.	13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 18. Ellis J. 34. Grehan S. 6. Huntington P. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A.
Coaches
Taylor M.	Simpson P.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Recent matches Bristol Rovers is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carlisle has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Bristol Rovers could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bristol Rovers is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bristol Rovers won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Bristol Rovers won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rovers
English League One
17.02.24	Northampton Town - Bristol Rovers	3:1 ✺
13.02.24	Stevenage Borough - Bristol Rovers	2:3 ✺
10.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Burton Albion	1:2 ✺
06.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
03.02.24	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWLLW
- Carlisle United
English League One
17.02.24	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	0:4 ✺
10.02.24	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
27.01.24	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	1:4 ✺
16.01.24	Barnsley - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
11.11.23	Carlisle United - Bristol Rovers	0:1
English League Two
26.03.22	Carlisle United - Bristol Rovers	1:0
09.10.21	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0
28.03.16	Carlisle United - Bristol Rovers	3:2
14.11.15	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	2:0

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