Match Info

Date: 23 October 2021, Saturday


	Carlisle United		Oldham Athletic

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.8
	1.98	3.3	3.75
	2	3.4	3.75
	2.01	3.25	3.65
	2.03	3.48	3.93
	1.95	3.3	3.7
	2.04	3.62	3.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.92)	3.39 ↓ (3.45)	3.78 ↓ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
47.2%

Draw
27.8%

Oldham Athletic
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

27.4%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

18.9%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Oldham Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlisle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldham Athletic than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oldham Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carlisle United - Oldham Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 22).

Carlisle has the most likely position - 23 (16.25%), has project points - 48, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (27%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Oldham has the most likely position - 23 (13.35%), has project points - 49, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Recently Oldham have a series of home games.

Carlisle will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
19.10.21	Newport County - Carlisle United	2:2 ✺
16.10.21	Carlisle United - Tranmere Rovers	0:1 ✺
09.10.21	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0 ✺
02.10.21	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
28.09.21	Carlisle United - Everton U21	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLLLW
- Oldham Athletic
English League Two
19.10.21	Oldham Athletic - Walsall	1:3 ✺
16.10.21	Oldham Athletic - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
09.10.21	Mansfield Town - Oldham Athletic	0:0 ✺
02.10.21	Oldham Athletic - Harrogate Town	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
28.09.21	Oldham Athletic - Leeds United U21	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.02.21	Carlisle United - Oldham Athletic	1:3
20.10.20	Oldham Athletic - Carlisle United	1:1
English League Cup
05.09.20	Oldham Athletic - Carlisle United	3:0
English League Two
18.01.20	Oldham Athletic - Carlisle United	1:1
28.09.19	Carlisle United - Oldham Athletic	1:0
26.12.18	Carlisle United - Oldham Athletic	6:0
06.10.18	Oldham Athletic - Carlisle United	1:3

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