Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 27

Date: 6 January 2024, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Brook C. (Eng)


	Exeter City		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.5
	2.1	3.25	3.4
	2.15	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.16	3.29	3.75
	2.16	3.29	3.75
	2.05	3.25	3.5
	2.08	3.36	3.57	Watch
	2.11	3.3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.09)	3.29 ↑ (3.24)	3.53 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
44.6%

Draw
28.7%

Carlisle United
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.9%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

26.7%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	7.7%	0%

Exeter City - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Exeter City will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sinisalo V. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 39. Diabate C. 5. Hartridge A. 21. Rankine D. 6. Carroll T. 12. Cole R. 3. Jules Z. 20. Harris L. 19. Cox S. 29. Aitchison J.	13. Breeze G. (G) 17. Whelan C. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 32. Emmanuel J. 33. Neal H. 15. Charters T. 7. Gibson J. 19. Robinson J. 35. Armstrong L. 24. Maguire S.
Substitutes
41. Borges P. 30. MacDonald S. (G) 14. Niskanen I. 11. Scott J. 23. Taylor K. 13. Wildschut Y.	3. Armer J. 11. Butterworth D. 9. Edmondson R. 14. Garner J. 1. Holy T. (G) 10. McCalmont A. 21. McGeouch D.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Simpson P.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Exeter could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Exeter will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Exeter won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 32-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
01.01.24	Reading - Exeter City	3:2 ✺
29.12.23	Exeter City - Portsmouth	0:0 ✺
26.12.23	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 ✺
22.12.23	Cambridge United - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
16.12.23	Stevenage Borough - Exeter City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTWLT
- Carlisle United
English League One
01.01.24	Carlisle United - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
29.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
26.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Carlisle United - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
16.12.23	Carlisle United - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
19.08.23	Carlisle United - Exeter City	0:2
English League Two
09.04.22	Carlisle United - Exeter City	0:1
20.11.21	Exeter City - Carlisle United	2:1
30.01.21	Carlisle United - Exeter City	1:0
31.10.20	Exeter City - Carlisle United	1:0
07.09.19	Carlisle United - Exeter City	1:3
09.02.19	Carlisle United - Exeter City	1:1

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