Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 30

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Referee: Monescillo D. (Esp)


	Ponferradina		Cartagena

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.5	3.15	2.9
	2.65	2.9	2.75
	2.79	3.03	2.9
	2.62	3.1	2.83	Watch
	2.7	2.95	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.57)	3.02 ↓ (3.03)	2.83 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
35.6%

Draw
31.1%

Cartagena
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

30.3%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

30.6%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Cartagena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.3%	42.1%	31.6%

Ponferradina - Cartagena Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Cartagena will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 19 (24.97%), has project points - 44, has currently - 29, has a good chance of relegated (59%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cartagena has the most likely position - 8 (13.58%), has project points - 59, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (15%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 38, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Ponferradina could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
26.02.23	Las Palmas - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
18.02.23	Ponferradina - Levante	0:0 ✺
12.02.23	Ibiza - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
05.02.23	Ponferradina - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
30.01.23	Zaragoza - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTTTT
- FC Cartagena
Spanish LaLiga2
25.02.23	Deportivo Alavés - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
17.02.23	Cartagena - Real Oviedo	2:1 ✺
12.02.23	Eibar - Cartagena	0:3 ✺
05.02.23	Cartagena - Levante	1:2 ✺
29.01.23	Ibiza - Cartagena	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
15.08.22	Cartagena - Ponferradina	2:3
01.05.22	Ponferradina - Cartagena	4:2
30.10.21	Cartagena - Ponferradina	0:1
12.03.21	Cartagena - Ponferradina	1:1
11.10.20	Ponferradina - Cartagena	0:2
Spanish Segunda Division B Losers Play Offs
15.06.19	Ponferradina - Cartagena	1:0
09.06.19	Cartagena - Ponferradina	1:2

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