Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	18:30	Disney+


	Ceará		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.85	3.1	Watch
	2.37	2.9	2.95
	2.4	2.88	3.15	Watch
	2.55	2.9	3.38
	2.55	2.66	3.38	Watch
	2.5	2.7	3
	2.45	2.81	3.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.33)	2.81 ↓ (2.9)	3.17 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
37.7%

Draw
33%

Fortaleza
29.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.1%

32.2%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

32.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	33.3%	55.6%

Ceará - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 21. Alex Silva 33. Eder (C) 4. Luiz Otavio 17. Fernando 20. Diego 18. Julio Cesar 40. Melk 81. Joao Gabriel 30. Gustavo Prado 11. Fernandinho	25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 4. Luan Freitas 8. Ronald 3. Lucas Gazal 22. Mailton 88. Lucas Sasha (C) 29. Rodrigo 13. Mauricio Junior 7. Pochettino T. 11. Vitinho 9. Miritello J. B.
Substitutes
60. Enzo Lodovico 63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 10. Juan Alano 90. Kaua Ziegler 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 98. Matheusinho 80. Pedro Esli 2. Ramos R. 12. Sanchez	18. Fuentes G. 1. Joao Ricardo (G) 33. Kaua Rocha 99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 38. Lucca Prior 20. Matheus Rossetto 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 75. Rodriguinho 31. Welliton
Coaches
Mozart	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Mailton (Penalty Awarded),
40', Vitinho 🟨,
45+3', Miritello J. B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Fernando ↓, Sanchez ↑,
46', Luan Freitas 🟨,
50', Alex Silva 🟨,
53', Alex Silva ↓, Enzo Lodovico ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Melk ⚽, Enzo Lodovico (A),
60', Gustavo Prado ↓, Giulio ↑,
60', Fernandinho ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
62', Vitinho ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Julio Cesar ⚽, Melk (A),
74', Ronald ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
75', Pochettino T. ↓, Welliton ↑,
77', Diego 🟨,
79', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
86', Rodrigo ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
90+3', Enzo Lodovico 🟨,
90+5', Lucas Sasha 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.

Recent form of Ceará has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Inactive) Matheusinho (Inactive) Richard (Injury) Ronald Carvalho (Inactive) Wendel Silva (Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Britez E. (Red Card) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Fuentes G. (Injury) GB (Inactive) Lucas Crispim (Inactive) Pierre (Red Card) Ryan (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Luiz Fernando (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:18. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41:29	12	60
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37:42	-5	43

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 16.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Ceará - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Maranhão - Ceará	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW
- Fortaleza EC
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.05.26	Confiança - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
02.05.26	Fortaleza - Goiás	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.03.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:2 penalties
01.03.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1
08.02.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
06.11.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1
13.07.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
22.03.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1

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