Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 4

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ceará		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.88	3.25	4.15	Watch
	1.94	3.35	4.76
	1.82	3.38	4.56	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4.4
	1.89	3.27	4.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.83)	3.28 ↓ (3.29)	4.42 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
50.1%

Draw
28.6%

Náutico Capibaribe
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

28.4%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

27.6%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (C) 21. Alex Silva 33. Eder 4. Luiz Otavio 12. Sanchez 20. Diego 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 29. Vina 98. Matheusinho 11. Fernandinho	1. Muriel Becker (G) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 25. Mateus Silva 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Yuri 8. Wenderson 19. Leonai Souza 77. Juninho 10. Dodo 7. Vinicius (C) 72. Derek
Substitutes
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 17. Fernando 63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 30. Gustavo Prado 81. Joao Gabriel 10. Juan Alano 18. Julio Cesar 13. Luiz Otavio 40. Melk 2. Ramos R. 9. Wendel Silva	2. Arnaldo 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 66. Leo Jance 9. Paulo Sergio 40. Ramon 93. Reginaldo 41. Samuel Felix 11. Victor Andrade 22. Vitinho 43. Wanderson
Coaches
Mozart	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Derek 🟨,
12', Matheus Ribeiro 🟨,
24', Fernandinho 🟨,
33', Leonai Souza 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leonai Souza ↓, Ramon ↑,
46', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Fernandinho ⚽,
58', Diego ↓, Julio Cesar ↑,
58', Fernandinho ↓, Giulio ↑,
60', Juninho ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
62', Matheus Araujo 🟨,
62', Mateus Silva 🟨,
65', Derek ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
67', Vina ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
67', Matheus Araujo ↓, Wendel Silva ↑,
72', Dodo ↓, Felipe Saraiva ↑,
73', Matheusinho ↓, Melk ↑,
76', Sanchez 🟨,
77', Alex Silva 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Náutico may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ceará is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Pedro Henrique (Lacking Match Fitness) Ronald Carvalho (Inactive) Vinicius Zanocelo (Inactive)

There will not play in Náutico: Betao (Inactive)

There are questionable in Náutico: Junior Todinho (Muscle Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Nautico: 0.3% Ceara: 0.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.08%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Cuiabá - Ceará	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Ponte Preta - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.03.26	Retrô Brasil - Ceará	3:1 ✺
25.03.26	Ceará - ABC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWTLT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
01.03.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0
14.02.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	0:0
06.04.19	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2
Brazilian Serie B
25.08.17	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
27.05.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	0:2
15.10.16	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0
25.06.16	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1

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